The plane banked hard as it started its descent. Far below, one of Nigeria’s oil-rich states was preparing for a major political quake. Inside the Airbus A330 business jet sat the President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and a retinue of aides. For two weeks, the President had flown to Paris, France, for a private visit, one that enabled him to plot his next political move.
Prior to the President’s trip to France, founding party chieftain and former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai had decamped from the ruling APC to the SDP in a surprising twist. In essence, El-Rufai’s move in addition to his open condemnation of the government he helps installed, hobnobbing with former President Buhari, and public romance with former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar seems to have jolted the government and the party to device a countermeasure to neutralize the former FCT Minister’s filibuster without breaking a sweat.
To stanch El-Rufai’s barrage of acerbic criticism and vitriolic rhetoric, a major political counterbalance that will disrupt the existing trend was needed. In that instance, the core North was left on the sideline as a movement to push for a united front starting from the South gained a foothold.
As President Tinubu settled upon his return, four days later, Delta State rose to the front page of major news outlets across the country. When the news of the defection of a PDP governor hit the airwave, it quickly sent shivers down the spines of millions of Nigerians. Many had thought the news was a fluke until it turned out real.
From the Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, his deputy, Monday Onyeme, members of the state executive council and their grassroots foot soldiers, the sudden collapse of the PDP structure in Delta shocked not only the people of Delta who had voted for the party in the 2023 gubernatorial contest but Nigerians who seem to have been caught off guard. Big in the news was the defection of Ifeanyi Okowa, immediate past Delta Governor and former running mate to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. In that moment, it appears the President’s cough alone will send cold to members of the opposition party.
In Akwa Ibom, Governor Umo Eno desired to abandon the PDP plane and join the APC train had animated public debate. In Enugu, the story is the same where Peter Mba hasn’t shied from expressing his admiration for the President. In Rivers, the secret meeting between the President and the suspended Governor, Sim Fubara in London indicated where the pendulum will swing once the six-month emergency rule expires. Edo is already in the kitty.
For one, there seems to be a ramp-up of the oil-rich states, essentially stifling the opposition of the needed oil money when the next election beckons. As the gale of defection gathers steam nationwide, the story appears quite different in Oyo State state where the opposition’s influence continues to grow in leaps and bounds. Perhaps, when people say Nigeria is sliding into a one-party state, they are only being economical with the truth given the peculiar situation in Oyo State.
In the 2011 governorship election in Oyo State, as I have noted in this column, party politics rose prominently as powerful individuals clashed over interest. It was an election that effectively cemented the place of Oyo State as a force in the anal of Nigeria’s democratic trajectory. That election produced a governor with 36% of the total vote. In 2015 as well, the inability of the opposition party to team up against the ruling APC essentially tipped the game in favor of the late Senator Abiola Ajimobi. In 2019 despite having the state under its belt, APC was trounced by Governor Seyi Makinde’s led PDP coalition.
Take the 2023 election. Like the 2019 gubernatorial poll, it was evident that no party has the mettle to wrestle the seat of power without the support of bigwigs and gladiators outside the party. In effect, no one can tell the story better than Governor Makinde who claimed that “he’d become 12% poorer as Governor in the last four years”.
Back to the one-party state claim. A few weeks ago, I was invited by a radio station to speak on the implication of political defection in the country starting from Delta State and to understand whether the serial defection of notable opposition members to the APC will not spell doom for the country’s multi-party democracy. My initial remark was to downplay that assertion by alluding to the fact that even the current US President, Donald Trump, and his bestie, Elon Musk were formerly Democrats before they crossed to the Republican party.
I argued that politics anywhere is inherently a game of interest and that people only move where their interest is protected. I noted that the Delta defection was quite shocking given that the state has been traditionally a PDP stronghold since the return of democracy in 1999. I added that Oyo, like most states of the federation, has a rich history of multi-party democracy.
In the first Republic, for instance, Awolowo’s UPN produced Chief Bola Ige but was booted out by Shagari’s NPN in the 1983 election. The story was similar in 1999 when Lam Adesina’s Alliance for Democracy flushed the PDP only for the PDP to fight back in 2003 when Rashidi Ladoja was elected as the Governor. Between 2003 and 2011, the PDP ruled the state with a tight fist until Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria snatched the state from late Alao Akala’s PDP. After Late Abiola Ajimobi’s jinx-breaking administration ended, another PDP man took over the mantle of leadership. In 2023, Governor Makinde recorded a landslide victory. Take the elections into the National and State Assemblies. In Oyo State, it has always been a shared affairs where candidates win both on the strength of their credentials and credibility. By 2027, only God knows which party will take over the Agodi government house.
Quite instructively, the power dynamics in Oyo State appear unpredictable as alignment and realignment of power brokers change the status quo and upend what we consider the political norm. When others claim Nigeria is sliding into a one-party state, that claim has no basis in Oyo where multi-party democracy not only survives but effectively thrives.
OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about issues affecting the Oyo state and is published every Saturday. He can be reached via @Upliftnuggets on X, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com, and 09065176850.
