The breathtaking events of the past few days have narrowed down the number of serious contenders for Oyo’s most consequential job into two. What started as a feisty and fiercely three-horse battle has now been decimated into a two-marathon race between the incumbent, Seyi Makinde of the PDP, and Teslim Folarin of the APC. Of course, the candidate of the Accord party, Oloye Bayo Adelabu, and his supporters might argue otherwise but one glaring fact that has emerged that they can’t discard and dismiss is the gale of defection and backstabbing that has rocked their party in the last one week – Hon. Shina Peller, Accord party candidate for Oyo North senatorial district has declared support for governor Makinde alongside Barr. Wakeel Oyedemi, house of rep. candidate for the Oyo federal constituency who declared support for Senator Teslim Folarin. To mention just two examples.
That the state working committee of the party could pull the rug off the feet of Oloye Bayo Adelabu on the eve of the now-postponed election and declare support for another candidate shows the underwhelming acceptance of the candidate’s political style within the party’s ranks and files. Apart from politics being local as they used to say — most times you have to exercise a bit of excessive paranoia to successfully navigate your way out of it. Simply, you have to be super-vigilant otherwise, your enemies would buy your house from your people when you are still deep in sleep. But maybe that’s not the case. Time will tell.
Indeed, the choice of your answer to the question that formed this week’s column depends on which side of the divide you stand on. Those who believed governor Seyi Makinde has performed incredibly well would not blink twice before mentioning the name of the engineer turned politician – as the next governor of the state. They will roll out his achievements in the last four years in education, infrastructure, security, workers’ welfare, rural development, and agriculture and boldly declare that his street credibility and wide acceptance among state workers and pensioners are enough to get him another four years in office. But for the supporters of the APC, Senator Teslim Folarin represents a fresh and credible alternative to the government of Engr. Seyi Makinde – which to them has dragged the state to Egypt with his politics of patronage and policies of populism.
In fact, they will walk you through Senator Folarin’s various legislative score card and tell you about his United Kingdom civil service experience, his motion for the doctrine of necessity in 2010 which pulled back Nigeria from the brink of Yaradua/Jonathan political conundrum, and his understanding of Oyo state politics. They will simply tell you he’s by far the best among other contestants – including the governor. In a way, supporters of Senator Folarin would not mince words in arguing that the past four years in the history of the state have witnessed an unprecedented increase in the debt profile, glorification of area boys, misappropriation of funds plus other issues that have bogged the state and formed their campaign rhetoric.
Fortunately, there is another critical section of the electorates who are neither “Tessyfied” (as supporters of Senator Folarin are called) nor “GSMists” (as governor Makinde’s followers are dubbed): The set of people who examine issues justly, objectively and dispassionately. This third important bloc is significant to the kind of candidate that will emerge as the next governor of the state. But for a start, it’s essential to critically assess the theoretical projections and predictions of the two leading candidates and compare them with the reality across the state’s nooks and crannies.
One of the most exciting and interesting parts of this 2023 gubernatorial race is the chance for people to raptly listen and watch the thoughts process of all the leading contenders on various critical issues such as local government autonomy, the state economy, security, infrastructure, rural development and so on. While governor Makinde believed in the local government autonomy before his emergence in 2019, his recent statement at the gubernatorial debate indicated he has changed his stand. For advocates of local government autonomy, governor Makinde is not the type of candidate that can deliver the people at the grass root from the tyranny of power usurpers.
Where others especially workers and pensioners see governor Makinde as the savior, advocates of devolution of power to the local government see a tyrant. But we now know the issue of local government is deeper. And more than any other vexing issues that have dominated this season, seeking power on the platter of advocating local government independence is not always the same once in the corridor of power. At least, we are all witnesses to the sudden change of governor Makinde’s mindset when he was seeking power compared to when he’s now in power.
As I have contented, the next governor of Oyo state would emerge out of a strong, powerful, and formidable coalition and political alliance. Reality is proven me right! This was the same tactic governor Makinde deployed in the last election. Having secured party tickets through the backdoor, the governor went ahead to rally around notable opposition figures to his side. The result was a landslide victory he claimed at the poll which is not entirely a reflection of people’s wide acceptance of his Omituntun agenda. Given that people have grown wary and tired of Senator Abiola Ajimobi and resented his continuation through a proxy. It is not surprising that they overwhelmingly voted for a candidate who has no attachment to the establishment they were determined to dismantle.
That coalition and political alliance is significant to this election help explains the crisis that has rocked both the state Labor and Accord parties in the last one week – which are in large part the handiwork of governor Makinde and his agents. Given that both Accord and Labor party unanimously declared their supports for governor Makinde. Perhaps, both the candidates of the Labor party, Tawfiq Akinwale and Oloye Bayo Adelabu of the Accord party must have woken up from the wrong sides of their beds those faithful days for their parties to ditched them for the sitting governor. Accord party in particular noted that their candidate is probably using their platform to realize his ambition after which he would dump them. Perhaps, that may be true when you consider how politicians jump from one party to another without batting an eye. Take governor Bello Matawalle of Zamfara. His party was defeated in the 2019 gubernatorial election but a supreme court judgment declaring the congress of the state APC null and void infamously made him an accidental governor. It is the same for Yahaya Bello of Kogi, Hope Uzodinma of Imo, and Douye Diri of Bayelsa among others.
Surprisingly, Governor Bello Matawalle would later dump PDP for APC and nothing has happened to him and his comrades: it’s all politics and raw power. In any way, Oyo Accord party conjecture might be right but not entirely complete when you factor in the disintegration of the coalition that worked for the success of governor Makinde in 2019 and the reality of that alliance today. Consequently, one hopes the Accord party in Oyo state might be jumping from a frying pan to fire – since they have refused to learn from history. In another word, it is needless to be caught up in the drama between the Oyo APC and PDP. Instead, I think it is crucial to observe events as they unfold through the lens of objectivity and non-partisanship. For instance, to come close to predicting who will win next week’s gubernatorial election, consider paying attention to the pattern and style of political coalition and alliance. Pay attention to the genuineness of their pacts. Listen to the voices of the silent majority. Allow yourself to enjoy the glee of political neutrality on vexing issues of the day and watch as the air of victory and defeat blows from the heart of Ibadan to the rest of the state.
OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about Issues affecting Oyo state, published on Saturdays. He can be reached via @TheGMAKing on Twitter, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com and 09065176850
