The last time the gubernatorial election in Oyo state hit up like this was in 2011. It was a widely unpredictable poll that left many in suspense and apprehension. Like it is now, the contest draws so much passion and energy from both the ruling and the opposition members. In part, because so much was at stake for the two-leading parties: PDP wanted to break the second term jinx, and the defunct ACN wanted to capture Oyo as one of its strongholds. But eventually, a winner emerged in a narrow, pulse-pounding, and breathtaking manner.
For those who don’t know what happened in the 2011 governorship between the incumbent, Otunba Christopher Adebayo Alao-Akala, and Senator Isiaka Abiola Ajimobi, today’s battle presents another incredible opportunity to have a rough sketch and idea about that distant past. Most political observers at that time believe the incumbent governor Alao-Akala with his striking popularity and street credibility is a man to beat. Added to that were his large heart, deep pocket, and infectious personality. He was a man of the people.
Plus, he was equally a party man, a team player who could give his last penny for the welfare of others. But Alao-Akala had a political wrinkle: he was not on good terms with the most powerful people of the day. The same powerful and influential people that were instrumental to his first-term electoral success turned against him at the dawn of his re-election. As expected, he went into the poll with confidence, optimism, and hope in the power of the people instead of the people of power. Of course, as they say, the rest is history.
Up until the last presidential election, nobody in governor Seyi Makinde’s camp could have thought this election would be tense-soaked and difficult. Ignorantly, most assumed the contest would be a walk-over for the governor and that his re-election is sealed — finally. Instead of building political bridges among the aggrieved, most handlers of GSM were busy badmouthing their opponents. Instead of initiating genuine reconciliation, they were in all places calling others unpredictable names. Now, what they considered a walk-over turned out to be a carry-over – when you consider how much the governor has doled out to curry endorsement and supports from lightweight politicians.
For the record, going into an election is like going for a battle. You can only prepare your troop, arm them with the right weapon, predict your opponent’s move, maintained your stronghold, and neutralize your opponent’s strength and trust in whatever you believe that eventually, you will come out victorious. In today’s contest, it is safe to say this election is 50/50. 33 local governments, 351 wards, 6,390 units, and 5 political zones. Of the 33 local governments, candidates will slug it out for 32 state assembly seats. In 2019, PDP clinched 29 of the seats leaving the rest for the APC. Observers contend that such a margin is going to be hard to repeat in today’s contest. They premised their postulation on the fact that the political alliance that made such possible in the last poll has fallen by the wayside. That if such a landslide margin would happen, it is like going to be for the opposition party which has to a large extent been able to close rank with most power brokers.
Again, the voting pattern of each region will also change. Nearly all the regions voted for governor Makinde in the last contest but that may not be said of today. The dynamics and dimensions have changed. Whoever wins will appreciate the breathtaking nature of this election. May the best candidate win.
