The political development of the last weeks have left many political analysts and pundits to be wowing about how assumed to be unexpected events are thriving in the pacesetter state, especially the candidacies of Mogaji Olasunkanmi Joseph Tegbe of PDP, the maradonic winning of Barrister Sharafa Alli of APC, and the quick accordance of KKD with Accord Party.
Even though it is one of those things that happens in political system of Nigeria, but it still looks like a mirage in the eyes of many political actors and players of how these political parties are playing the intellectual game.
Why did Tegbe leave Oyo APC and the aftermath? For any good politician, who probably find himself in the shoes of the KPMG Senior Partner, Joseph Tegbe, would not as well think it thrice, if he has given it a second thought to bow out of APC that is projected not to offer him any chances to flag any of the major tickets in the forthcoming election. Tegbe indeed acted very right with his defection. It is politics of recognition he played, as against the card the APC was showing to him on the table, and coupled with the unresolvable internal bleeding from the party in the present time. And at the end, he was justified, he is the real Joseph who foresaw tomorrow that later dawned on others.
Let’s talk about him a bit.
Lol and behold, Tegbe found GRACE in PDP. He was instantly given the chance to fly the party’s ticket for Oyo south senatorial district.
But, how he will cross the many bridges in front of him, especially the Olubadan sentiment, where the incumbent Sen. Kola Balogun, the younger brother to the Olubadan of Ibadanland was ungraciously slapped, and forced out of the party? And for any defected politicians, there has always been some moral questions of, why did you leave your party to the present? And which one is assumed to be better when it comes to democratic rules and principles? The answer to those are said to be what you and I know very well.
Where will the real fight of Oyo South be?
Oyo South senatorial district has 9 local government areas; Ibadan North East, Ibadan North, Ibadan South East, Ibadan South West, Ibadan North West, Ido Local Government, Ibarapa Central, Ibarapa North and Ibarapa East. With all things being equal, the three local government making up Ibarapa are politically not for the PDP with the present calculations, and as there is that non-recognition of the geopolitical zone in the area of development by the present government of Engr. Seyi Makinde, coupled with the heights of insecurities in the zone with non-effective measures from the government. The poor show of the speaker, who hails from the zone is another headache for the PDP.
Still, let’s give it to Makinde, his political scheming skills to bring on board some ‘household’ names from the opposition in the state is topnotch.
Why Ibarapa seems to be off-line for the PDP in Oyo South, even though not in total, it is only doubtful seeing them having a reasonable numbers of votes with the oppositions fielding formidable opponents like Sharafa Alli, Kolapo Kola-Daisi in the contest.
Then, the Ibadan will be the battle ground.
Ibadan North East/Ibadan South East, and Ibadan North West/South West federal constituencies are being represented by PDP presently, and which has a lot of influence on what the results are going to be, even though both, Abass Agboworin and Stanley Odidiomo are having poor performances upon returning them to contest. APC is putting forward Dapo Lam Adesina and Saheed Akinade-Fijabi in the two federal constituencies while Accord is reported to be fielding Semiu Alao and Rotimi Ajanaku respectively. Interestingly, the six names put together are household names in the two federal constituencies.
And for Ibadan North, it is probably a no go area for the PDP, the present occupier of the federal seat there is a force to reckon with, and may not want to give a loose fight with Kunle Sarumi of PDP and Umar Farook Arisekola of Accord Party.
For Ido/Ibarapa East federal constituency, only God knows how Hon. Yemi Taiwo make his way to represent the constituency. Nobody is even sure if he truly merits the position he is occupying in terms of performance and legislative duties. But he probably knows how to peal his onions. How he will face Remi Oseni of APC and former Ido LG Chairman, Wahab Oladejo of Accord Party with his woeful reign is what many do not know.
Now, what should we expect?
One sacred thing that will reflect in the election results is how the local and interior people of Ibadan local governments within Oyo South will express the love Gov. Makinde is claiming they have for him. If truly he is loved as the general public is being made to believe cosmetically, then, Makinde’s PDP is a goal, and if otherwise, he will be beaten cosmetically as well.
The crisis of Oyo APC that is not properly managed has tactically blew out any possible chances of them winning the senatorial district as being projected.
Let’s put the old tactics and glory of Sharafa Alli aside, this is real modern politics, and KKD’s Kola Daisi of Accord Party is a name to reckon with in Ibadan and Oyo State, so, it is an Ibadan fight.
On a final lap, Joseph Olasunkanmi Tegbe’s goodwill, Sharafa Alli’s contacts and past glories, and KKD’s family name and youthfulness are factors that will play out in the election.
Akintunde Akinloye writes from Ibadan, Oyo State.