Very recently, the newly elected Oyo State Governor Engineer Seyi Makinde while marking his one month in office organised had a sumptuous media parley in which he “unsealed the Calabash of Oyo State Public finances” and also pinched the most recent opposition party (APC) in the “butt” with a lot of bitter descriptions, strategic insults and unholy revelations. The most unholy of the revelations was very direct and specific and it has to do with Other State debt profile which the Executive Governor revealed that it stands at 150 Billion Naira and suddenly it became the latest gist of the week and the most “electrifying” of all the revelations the Governor made, the ruling Party makes it a tool of “bad imagery and propaganda” as usual and the fresh opposition PARTY (APC) has failed to give the most appropriate reply consisting of Intellectual and sophisticated Financial analysis befitting such “unbefitting accusation”. This article intends to do the needful by “refining the unholy revelation of the governor from political propaganda to a befitting financial and Intellectual analysis”.
Frankly, I urge my readers to exercise rare patience in digesting the Financial analysis that i will be “serving” them in the most comprehensive and palatable manner. I have chosen to fetch my facts from prestigious organisations such as BUDGIT, International Centre for Investigative reporting (ICIR), Debt Management Office (DMO), National Bereau of Statistics (NBS). It will be ignorant or mischievous of anyone to blindly swallow figures given by the ruling party in Oyo State without understanding the History of Public Finance/Fiscal policy of Oyo State. As at third quarter of 2018, the last report on IGR as published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), five out of the nine states have been able to increase their internally revenue base with more than 100 percent from what it used to be in 2011. The states include Borno- 103 percent, Nasarawa- 106 percent, Ogun- 482 percent, Oyo- 105 percent, and Zamfara- 160 percent. And even in 2017, Oyo State was ranked high as one of the states with PROGRESSIVE Internal generated revenue(IGR) competing side by side with Lagos and Ogun State, the report says “The Economic Confidential ASVI further showed that only three states in the entire Northern region have IGR above 20%. They are Kwara, Kano, and Kaduna States. Meanwhile ten states in the South recorded over 20% IGR in 2017. They are Lagos, Ogun, Rivers, Edo, Enugu, Delta, Cross River, Anambra, Oyo and Abia States.” Mind you, as cited above the IGR rose above 100% according to NBS for 2018 statistics.
Moreover, if we are to analyse the debt profile of Oyo State side by side with other states in Nigeria, it has not gone so bad or sour considering the rising IGR and Investments in Capital expenditure to drive in more productive Investments for the state. Currently, Oyo State is not part of the list of the most indebted states in Nigeria which includes; Lagos, Edo, Kaduna, Cross Rivers, Delta, Osun, Fct and some of the reported states are owing more than half of the foreign debts, Nigeria’s public debt is 24.38 trillion Naira and Lagos remains the biggest debtor in external and domestic debt.
Interestingly, this is another brief breakdown of 2011-2018 debt profile of states according to ICIR; Nasarawa state in 2011 had a debt of $71.4 million, as at June 2018, the debt has increased to $292 million, which is an increase of 308.5 percent. Ogun state also increased its debt by 55.4 percent, from $289 million in 2011 to $449.4 million in 2018. “Oyo state debt increased by 261.9 percent from $109 million in 2011 to $394.8 million in 2018.” For Yobe state, in 2011, the debt profile stood at $44.6 million, increased to $118 million in 2018, an increase of 164.3 percent.Zamfara state in 2011 had a debt of $109.9 million and increased to $263.5 million, an increase of 139.6 percent as at June 2018. Truly, the debts are staggering but not sour or too bad as painted by the Governor considering the “progressive rise in IGR from 2011-2018, encouraging rise in capital expenditure, increase in private sector entry into the states and considering the reality of unusual federal allocations. The state has outperformed Ogun State, Yobe State, Nasarawa State in terms of IGR , productive Investments and social infrastructures except for Ogun State which has bigger IGR but cannot compete with Oyo State in terms of Social infrastructures from 2011-2018.
Conclusively, the Executive Governor gave a faulty, half baked and less informing report capable of exposing him as “too scared or unprepared to lift the burden” and possibly portraying his Government as “propagandist or hanky panky regime” by failing to give a detailed report as to the true Financial status of the state. They failed to tell the people the specific differences between “domestic debt and foreign debt and whether the Governor was specifically referring to the domestic debts or debts in general accumulating into 150 Billion Naira, failing to reveal the financial/debt profile of other richer or poorer states, that the APC Government also inherited over 100 Million dollars worth of debt in 2011 and most importantly the differences in exchange rate in 2011 which was 155 Naira and now 305 Naira coupled with it’s relationship with the debt profile”. Sincerely, the debt profile of the state is staggering but not as chronic as painted by the ruling party considering the rise in IGR over the years, private sector Investments, social infrastructures compared with other states with “fat debts” but with no corresponding impacts or develpopment. The sky is not totally dark and more wonders can still be done by the State Government considering the progressive financial structures. Their excuses are too early and not worth it.
Mujib Dada-Qadri (Caballo) is a Writer, Development and policy analyst.
Related
