The next few weeks and months will see a tough political atmosphere in Oyo state. This is in part result of ensuing power play that will shake various political tables, and pitch power blocs against each other. As expected, there will be strong politicking, clandestine plotting, and heated debates plus vitriolic rhetoric; one never before seen as various gladiators will throw their hats in the ring, put their ambitions on the line and flex their political muscle to intimidate, harass and finally show the stuffs they are made of.
This intriguing power tussle will interestingly dominate both the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). And the heat of that moment will only be endured and withstands by the brave and the strong; it’s going to be the survival of the fittest, the elimination of the unfit. But this kind of intensive political upheaval will again put Oyo, on the frontier of pace setting state, one that’s never failed to send shiver down the spines of various Political pollsters – who think they’ve seen it all and know it all.
The point is that Oyo has never stopped stunning those who think they can predict its political events with certain degree of accuracy. And partly because the people are some of the savvy and hard to understand kind of citizens in the country. Even gladiators are quick to lay down their swords once they see the handwriting on the wall. Winning election in Oyo for instance goes beyond mere political sloganeering and petty politics of mudslinging. It comes with shocks and surprises. To understand the unique brand of politics in Oyo is to always brace for new twist, dimensions and tricks hard to glean from the pages of textbooks.
In a sense, those who think they can learn the intricacies of Oyo politics through the pages of textbooks or use tips and hacks from snake oil salesman to swindle the people are sure to meet their Waterloo when least expected. But those who understand the curves and contours of this rare brand will eat the sweet cake of politics and the ice placed on it, too – but they will never have that cake again! Quite unusual, in Oyo state, no gladiators has enjoy the pecks of politics from the start of this republic till now. In other words, no politicians has remain consistently relevant plus being a power broker since the turn of this Democratic dispensation.
In state like Lagos for instance, the political structure still hangs on the iron fist of that legendary political strategist, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while in Kwara and for sixteen years; the political power rests on the shoulder of the Saraki’s dynasty until it was bulldozed in the last election. In a way, there are states under the control of strong and enduring Political structure, but Oyo is not to have its survival tied to the apron string of a family or a man.
Politics is tricky; that’s why it is interesting. In politics for example, you hardly tell who your friends or foes are.
Again, to even say who’s for or against you while in power is itself a herculean task. But the moment you are kicked out of office, your eyes are open to see where shoes pinches and why your political vehicle runs out of oil. This idea of placing politics in the realm of unpredictable and uncertain vocation is as old as mother earth itself. When Harold Lasswell defined politics as who gets what, when and how, he must have had in mind the idea of power play and importantly of resource sharing. Viewed from another lens, politics being tricky means sometimes it may defies logic, and common sense because where logic fail or rationality fall short, you may look up to politics for rescue.
This particular line of thought helps explain why you see various unimaginable and unpredictable political alignment, permutations, and unification. It is why you see political enemies teaming up with each others to fight common foes. The way politicians look at the world is by far different from the way a lay person sees the universe. While many look at the world and its great confusion from the black and white microscope — kind of a linear world; politicians on the other hands see it macroscopic way a as mere color that can be changed, manipulated, and transformed to serve their own whims and caprices. Because politics is hard, politicians are even harder to understand. That is why the various Political dogfights going on in both Oyo APC and PDP must never be taken seriously. In politics what matter is interest, any other thing is side attraction.
In a similar vein, the various Political happenings set to hit the ground running as each party warm up for next election should never caught us off guard. There is will be gale of defections, cross carpeting and importantly Political sabotage. These are what make politics intriguing, intricate, delicate, interesting and scary which then lead one party party to victory and another to defeat.
OYO101, Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion on issues affecting Oyo State, is published on Saturdays. He can be reached via muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com and 09065176850.
