FIRST ALLELUYA, THEN ARAPAJA: How Prepared Is The Makinde’s Camp For Possible Political Tsunami? { Muftau Gbadegesin
The ground upon which the political camp of Governor Seyi Makinde rests is cracking. “If there are no cracks in a wall”, one thoughtful proverb from my place argued, “a lizard may not be able to penetrate”. But the cracks, for now, are still considered minor, imperceptible and insignificant.
“Unless a structure is struck either by an earthquake, tsunami, or other natural disasters and dangerous weapons, it may, without a doubt, remain standing when hit in a crossfire of military combat”. The same thing applies to political parties when they trade not just words but set out to weaken the camps of their adversaries.
Perhaps, if the attacks on the foundation of an edifice persists with relentless intensity and ferocity, the building may eventually cave in one fell swoop while rendering it inhabitable for those seeking shelter. Think of the crisis that brought the PDP to its knees and the series of events that turned Governor Makinde into a tenant in his Special Purpose Vehicle called the Allied People’s Movement (APM).
Like other political camps, the Makinde’s is not insulated from the usual bickering that has tore the Oyo APC, in the last seven years, into an unrecognizable platform. Although, given the outcomes of both the 2019 and 2023 elections, one can state unequivocally that the Governor’s handing of the alliances and coalition that brought him to power without breaking a sweat stood are stuff of a skilled politician. As the 2027 election looms, it appears the current skirmishes engulfing the Governor’s camp may stretch not only his fat pocket but ultimately wear out his political stamina to the thin.
One stunning instance that set the ground for the current political tension in the Governor’s camp is one that is connected to the shocking defection of Senator Hosea Ayoola Agboola on the 10th of October, 2025. That surprising cross carpeting signaled to the public the emerging cracks and discontents in the Governor’s camp. Alleluyah, as fondly called, was a former deputy chief whip of the senate, a two times commissioner for local government and chieftaincy affairs and the pioneer chairman of the Makinde’s Governance Advisory Council (GAC). For a fact, he was one of the most influential and powerful figures in the Makinde’s inner cycle until the relationship hit the rock bottom.
As a matter of fact, his defection caught many off guard; leaving the camp that once sheltered him morally weakened and politically depleted. In weeks and months that followed his change of political party, Alleluyah settled into his new party with the confidence of a man determined to fight the system that once pampered him. Whether in Abuja or Ibadan, he was everywhere wining and dining with APC politicians with mirthful abandon. Despite attempts by the Governor’s handlers to downplay the magnitude of the cracks brewing in their camp, the recent defection of another stalwart of the camp, Ambassador Taofeek Oladejo Arapaja has only confirmed the obvious truth: there are strong plans to thwart Makinde’s hope of installing his acolyte as the next governor of Oyo State both from the inside and outside the orbit of power.
For closed to two months after the orire abduction sent chills down the spines of the nation, leading to a momentary pause in the politicking, the heartwarming rescue operation of the victims only a few weeks ago, has restores the usual frenzy that has come to defined the political scene that was once in hibernation. Interestingly, as the countdown to the start of campaign draw closer, the state is about to witness an explosion of powerful rallies, increased media visibility, jibes and vibes, and politics of vilification; events that will ultimately shape the second half of 2026 and beyond. For most politicians, the relief of the release of the victims is enough to kick off the political activities without sounding utterly insensitive. But it appears Makinde’s camp is counting its loses while watching as powerful forces continue to hack off the branches of its sturdy tree.
For the re-election bid of Governor Seyi Makinde 2023, Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja threw everything on the line: reputation, relationship and respect. For years, the relationship between Governor Seyi Makinde and Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja waxed so strong that many assumed nothing would stand in their ways. That relationship became subject of public debate when Ambassador Arapaja appeared on several radio stations to preach Makinde’s gospel and to punch those who backed his opponents in the stomach in 2022. Under GSM, Ambassador rose to become the National Secretary of the People’s Democratic Party, alongside many other National recognition.
Many are now left wondering what would have gone wrong behind the scene. For speculators, the sudden turn of event between the governor and Ambassador Arapaja points to the perils and pitfalls of political relationship where interest, once diverged, often mark not just an abrupt end but spell doom for two closed allies. And for the grandstanding in the governor’s camp particularly as they try to dismiss the influence of politicians like Arapaja, the truth remains: when a house has its pillars removed, one by one, by a superior force while still housing occupants, what else can stand in the way of the collapse?
The truth is, political parties are built and sustained by those with the means and the clout. Unlike in the past where the parties truly belong to the committed and dedicated party members. The reality of our time is such that parties belong to the money bags and those with the structure who often dictate the direction and dimension of votes. Governor Makinde himself knew this fact: it was why in 2019, he ensured heavyweight politicians backed his ambition and ultimately led him to electoral victory, against all odds. In 2023 as well, as he did in 2019, he leveraged the division within the APC to defeat his opponent.
Outside looking in, two possible points explain why the Governor Makinde’s camp may part way with more of its power brokers. One is the power of leverage that is slipping off the governor’s fingers. As an outgoing governor, it is not uncommon for political hawkers to rethink their strategies and plans aka plan for the raining days. For every new era comes with its own peculiarities. Unless you are an outgoing governor in Lagos where a firmly rooted political structure share electoral spoils and calm fraying nerves, managing your vulnerability to have your preferred candidate emerge as your successor usually comes with its own headaches. In Oyo State in particular, that kind of dominance is usually resisted at every slight opportunity. We’ve seen the defeat of the late Abiola Ajimobi’s imposed candidate in 2019 and we’ve seen Oyo electorates reject and repudiate candidates that appear to fit into the negative narrative of political domination. Power brokers like Dotun Sanusi are already teaming up against Governor Seyi Makinde and his handpicked candidate. Fatai Owoseni, once in the governor’s camp is also waging war against the camp that once gave him a political shelter. Then, there is the case of Oriyomi Hamzat, the veteran grassroot mobilizer seen as a stubborn fly inside the testicle of the Governor’s enclave.
In Abuja, Governor Seyi Makinde is also being discussed as a man that must be dealt with. Not only because he asked for an independent investigation into the unfortunate mass abduction of orire victims or his Presidential ambition but because as a second term governor, he has amassed enough enemies to guarantee the defeat of his anointed candidate in election. But no one should doubt Governor Seyi Makinde when it comes to pulling a political stunt. It is here that opposition must be careful, calculative and strategic, otherwise, like a cat with nine lives, GSM may stun them when they least expect!
PLAIN TALK is Muftau Gbadegesin’s commentary on contemporary socio-political Issues affecting Oyo State and beyond. He writes every Saturday and can be reached on Facebook, X, WhatsApp (07051905380) and on Gmail: muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com
