Never before has a rerun election ignited so much buzz, tension, and excitement in such a short time as we have seen in the past few days – in the last ten years – in Oyo State. Ibadan North Federal Constituency, the only local government in Oyo State with a mind-blowing 512 polling unit, is currently the hotbed of political permutations.
Given its numerical strength and strategic importance, the council area became the focal point of divisive political maneuvers, intrigues, and calculations between the ruling PDP and the opposition APC – as it braces up for the re-run election almost a year after the demise of its former rep. Prince Olaide Akinremi aka Jagaban.
Recall that the late Akinremi defeated the candidate of the PDP, Lanre Sarumi, and Accord Party flag bearer, Farouk Arisekola-Alao, in the 2023 election. Akinremi polled a total of 21,135 votes while Sarumi and Ariseko-Alao scored 16,060 and 8,108 votes respectively.
In 2019, the late Akinremi had defeated the candidate of the PDP, Hon. Ademola Omotosho who was seeking re-election, with a narrow win, scoring 17,048 to 16,237 votes. The last time a PDP candidate won the Ibadan North Federal Constituency election was in 2015 when Hon. Abiodun Awoleye defeated other parties despite the so-called Buhari tsunami that swept the larger part of the North and Western Nigeria.
For Governor Seyi Makinde, the re-run election is more than a mere democratic exercise: the outcome will set the tone for his future political experiment. If the PDP wins the election, it will be a major boost to the party’s underwhelming performance in the House of Representatives election, and for the opposition APC, the result will either force them to rethink, re-strategize, or relapse into their usual blame game. Or reassure them of their firm grip in the local politics where they’ve always enjoyed impressive outings in the last twelve years.
Of course, the simmering rivalry between the PDP and the APC has equally taken a center stage as the two parties lock horns in a re-run election that has witnessed the usual razzmatazz and gimmicks in recent times. In 2019 and 2023 for instance, most candidates of the PDP in the national assembly elections suffered huge and devastating defeats.
Take the 2019 poll. While Governor Makinde was declared winner in the guber poll, the APC had an impressive outing in the national assembly election, winning two Senatorial Districts poll out of three and about nine out of the fourteen House of Representative’s. In 2023, APC won all the three Senatorial Districts and more than two third of the House of Representative’s. This re-run offers PDP a chance to close the wide gap.
While the coalition that was key to GSM’s electoral success in 2019 bitterly and abruptly disintegrated with members jumping off the ship without batting an eyelid. Still, Makinde ran a government that consistently raised the bar of governance while surpassing the success of his predecessor in different significant areas.
Anyone who has studied the political development of the state in the last ten years will confirm this cold truth: APC’s biggest headache stems from the destructive ego and ineffective conflict resolution mechanism of its notable leaders and stakeholders. But PDP under Governor Makinde hasn’t fared better from internal skirmishes tearing their counterpart, APC apart.
In several columns, I have noted that the state of our political parties, particularly in Oyo State, suggests that gubernatorial contests, for example, can only be won on the account of one party capitalizing on and harvesting weakness and fracas in the other.
For one thing, the two elections won by Governor Makinde, whether in 2019 or 2023, would have been tougher had the APC presented a united, cohesive, and indivisible front. Indeed, Governor Makinde has profited largely from the avoidable polarization and division in the APC than any other politician – with future capitalisation on the offing.
Surprisingly, a high-level stakeholder meeting held this week by the APC may be changing the narrative. For the first time since 2022, Senator Teslim Folarin and Oloye Bayo Adelabu, former Deputy Governor, Engr. Rauf Olaniyan found themselves sitting under the same roof – all for the unity of the party. That engagement and the outcome of this re-run election will speak volumes in the months to come.
In effect, winning an election in today’s world would mean more than building a strong base internally, but sustaining a resilient stronghold externally across other platforms: one that has the strength to undermine, frustrate, and sabotage the efforts of others. In essence, when Governor Makinde strategically named the trans amusement park estate after the late Hon. Olaide Akinremi on the eve of this re-run election, what do you think he was doing? Of course, he was simply playing politics with the dead man’s name, hoping to secure the buy-in of his supporters for his candidate.
Understandably, a major highlight of this re-run is that the two parties, APC and PDP are almost on the same pedestal financially. The Minister of Power, Oloye Adelabu, is aware of the significance of this contest to his ambition. Likewise, the Governor, Seyi Makinde. So, we can conveniently say the election is a proxy war between two old veterans.
Perhaps, this momentum sustained till the next general election. Another interesting thing about this election is that the electorates are unlikely to be swayed by Tinubu’s government reforms or Makinde’s transformation of Ibadan. And here lies the dilemma of the contest. Anyway, whoever wins or loses in today’s contest still has two years to prepare, consolidate, or regroup for the next poll.
OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about issues affecting the Oyo state and is published every Saturday. He can be reached via @Upliftnuggets on X, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com, and 09065176850.
