One of the joys, and also frustrations, of writing about politics is the freedom or constraint that comes with backing up your intellectual hunch with unimpeachable evidence. When your story hits those in authority like a thunderstorm, you bask in the glow of your intervention, but when their missiles ricochet off your entity, you become scared and wary. To stop you, the ruling elites can go so far as to mobilize their attack dogs, distort your facts, twist your intentions, and label you a threat—or absolve you into their fold! In a way, those who profit from the current arrangement don’t mind muddying the waters or blackmailing the writer. Of course, writing about people in power is a risky adventure, but so is any endeavour that’s determined to hold leaders to account.
Unsurprisingly, those at the receiving end of your intellectual spanking can easily get irritated and upset when your curiosity gets them into trouble. But it takes courage to express yourself, regardless of whose ox is gored. As Martin Luther King Jr. once enthused, “courage is an inner resolution to go forward despite obstacles.” Crucially, courage is a matter of conviction, this ancient truism has also permeated our political decisions. You don’t promote someone unless you have complete confidence in their ability and acumen to deliver—or unless you have a life-changing opportunity from them. Unless you firmly believe a candidate and her party have better answers to the biggest problems, it’s unlikely that you will throw your weight behind them. Like in other climes where politics is deeply rooted in emotions and sentiments, the choice of who to support and campaign for in an election in Nigeria is enough to end a friendship.
While the political elites don’t necessarily get touchy-feely in matters of choice, unsuspecting members of the public sometimes get emotionally attached to their candidates. That we live in an age of growing polarization makes this even more evident. In a way, what actually should be an avenue to articulate ideas and debate policy has turned into a high-decibel slanging match where candidates and their supporters have mischievously turned the table around. Of course, those who identify with political parties are unlikely to change their minds about who to support and vote for. Given their numbers, the majority of campaign strategies and tactics are aimed at undecided voters. Over the years, we’ve witnessed various campaign strategies, tactics, and electoral management. The transition of Nigeria from military to civilian rule didn’t elicit much passion from the people. But by 2015, people’s interest in democracy had peaked. At that critical period, campaigns became intensely hot, divisive, and dangerous as the political status quo became ruffled and upended, paving the way for the opposition to claim victory for the first time in the country’s democratic trajectory.
In essence, once a political campaign is wrapped around sentiments and emotions, it is sure to generate heated debates, which inevitably enhance the candidate’s visibility, reachability, and perhaps winnability. More importantly, ensure that the candidates have a cult following. Naturally, people want to be seen, heard, and represented. And they won’t mind crossing to the other side just to belong and fit in. But people are also likely to anticipate campaign period given the estimated financial gains that were projected and predicted to follow. Unfortunately, most Nigerians are now disappointed at the slow pace of political activities, especially at the state level. For instance, the contending forces at the national level have been able to demonstrate their readiness to take over the country next year. Deftly, the three leading candidates were able to hit the ground running immediately the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) lifted the ban on political campaigning. But in most states, the political wheel appears to be grinding. In Oyo, for instance, little has been heard or seen as far as the race for the top seat is concerned.
Take, for instance, the three leading candidates in Oyo state: Seyi Makinde of the PDP, Teslim Folarin of the APC, and Bayo Adelabu of Accord, who are all treading carefully, watching, and planning strategically. I reckon that they are still studying the dynamics of next year’s poll. Throwing money around appears to be fading into irrelevance, especially when it is hard to separate fake supporters from genuine ones. More reason for those who expect money to rain down at this time to be gob-smacked. Undoubtedly, politicians are getting wiser and smarter. The fact that INEC extended the campaign period has only made politicians think twice about flooding the country with cash. I think what most politicians are doing now is intensive research. They are combing through records of people’s data. They want to be certain of their stronghold. While the contenders are busy sifting and sorting through big data to track their potential voters, the pretenders are flexing, hoping for a miracle. In away, the old tactics of crowding people under the scorching sun to share and spread their messages appear to be fading into obscurity. Technology is making the election, and perhaps campaigning interesting and thrilling.
Instead of packing people in a place just to parrot the same usual, predictable, and terse rhetoric, technology is now helping politicians create personalized contents delivered directly to the electorate. While Nigeria is slow to integrate technology into its many opaque systems, most politicians are now tapping into the incredible power of technology to refine, recraft, and repackage their methods and approaches. “In the political sphere,” Michael J. Burton and Daniel M. Shea noted in their book Campaign Craft that “voters are [being] tracked by ever-growing databases and are reached through an ever more sophisticated microtargeting program.” So, for those who believe that political campaigning should be business as usual, here’s a counsel: don’t wait for politicians to throw money at you; instead, make yourself so good that politicians can never ignore you.
OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about Issues affecting Oyo state, published on Saturdays. He can be reached via @TheGMAKing on Twitter, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com and 09065176850
