Take a look at the various political intrigues and dramas in Kogi and Rivers states. In Kogi, for instance, there is Usman Ahmed Ododo, whose absolute loyalty to his godfather, Yahaya Bello, continues to shield the self-acclaimed ‘white lion’ from the long arm of the law.
While the event in Kogi is not particularly surprising in Nigeria, the crude deployment of immunity and impunity by a serving governor to keep a wanted fugitive from arrest has elevated Nigeria’s political rascality to a new, dangerous, and unbelievable heights. In Rivers, Governor Fubara and FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike have renewed their battle over the conduct of local government polls with the exchange of verbal firepower from their respective camps.
The story is similar in Kaduna state where Mallam Nasir El-Rufai and Governor Uba Sanni have locked horns over the affairs of the state.
Back to Oyo state. Over the week, Governor Seyi Makinde hinted electorates across the state of his plan to have his favorite foisted over his party come 2027. For one, that was by far the closest the Governor had come regarding his preferred candidate for the next governorship election.
Apart from that subtle reminder, he has also said, even though he quickly backtracked, that as the Governor, he would only endorse and support aspirants who are relatively younger than he was in 2019 – He was 51 when he defeated Oloye Bayo Adelabu of APC. Older aspirants within the PDP, like Chief Dotun Sanusi swiftly took a jab at the governor and as expected, he claimed his statement was taken out of context. In months and years to come, the coast of who will have the support of the Governor in 2027 will become clearer. But first, will the Governor be bold enough to damn the acclaimed political might of the Ibadan people?
I ended my last week’s column with a rhetorical question. I’d come to that conclusion because of events in Edo state where the All-Progressives Congress had its gubernatorial ticket zoned to Edo central. By far, APC’s gesture quickly became its biggest selling point: that the ‘35’ years of outright marginalization had finally ended. It was also the party’s biggest tactical maneuver, particularly against a sitting governor. Despite cries and hues against marginalization by the people of Edo Central, Governor Godwin Obaseki went ahead to field a candidate outside of that zone, the governor must be gritting his teeth somewhere in Italy where he is vacationing.
To start with, Governor Obaseki and Makinde are not the same. Although they belong to the same political party, their respective reality differs in many ways. Last week, I highlighted some of the wrongdoings of Godwin Obaseki that significantly contributed to the defeat of Asue Ighodalo, his preferred candidate. This week, I am going to identify some of the obstacles that may stand in the way of Governor Makinde’s prospective candidate come 2027. Admittedly, it is not possible to rule a state for eight years without stepping on toes or ruffling feathers. “It is not possible to rule a state for eight years and not step on toes”, later Abiola Ajimobi admitted during the commissioning of his mosque shortly after his party was trounced in 2019. And for Governor Makinde, he is no exception.
First of the major hurdles Governor Makinde will have to sail before dashing into the rivers of next governorship election will be to bring back the coalition that brought him to power in 2019 under the same roof. I’m aware that’s a tough job. But if you pay attention to what the Governor said during the 80th birthday celebration of Oba Rashidi Ladoja, you will understand my point. “My political trajectory cannot be complete without mentioning his name”, Governor Makinde had stated, “We may have some political differences. I beg you that wherever I have offended you, I have begged you”. Sincerely, the governor concluded, we will re-align and there will be development. Aware of the task ahead and the danger of having to contend with the forces that made him the governor, that statement signals a mindset and mentality that sees potential fence-mending efforts in the state political space.
Unlike Obaseki, Governor Makinde seems to realize early on, that reaching out to people he offended might be his saving grace – an attempt that may help hoodwink the electorates. Otherwise, he will end up fielding an unsellable and unacceptable candidate in the long run. Godwin Obaseki fought the coalition that brought him to power in 2016 and 2020. In 2024, he thought he could prevail over the various power brokers and gladiators – he must have realized his mistakes by now. Of course, it is an ancient truism that human generally desire novelty. So, after eight years, electorate generally always prefer a fresh hand at the helm of affairs. And when a governor tried to install his successor, it quietly signals an attempt for him to rule by proxy and surrogate. People generally don’t like such idea. Take it or leave it, in 2027 when governor Makinde anoint and foist his preferred candidate on his party and perhaps the people, the speculation that Makinde is trying to pocket the state will spread like wildfire.
Just the same way people were ultimately tired of the late Abiola Ajimobi in 2019, by design, anger will also be directed toward Governor Makinde’s choice in 2027. The willful inability of late Ajimobi to effectively and successfully manage the fallout that trailed the emergence of Oloye Bayo Adelabu within the APC gave the party’s chances away.
Left alone, the fallout that will also trail Makinde’s choice in 2027 may also break the party, paving the way for enemies exploitation. In essence, Makinde’s chances of securing victory for his preferred candidate will also hang on the conduct of the APC on the other side. A bitterly divided APC will give Governor Makinde’s plan a strong political mojo. The Edo APC knew a mistake from their end will be fatal and costly, so the stakeholders worked hand in glove by placating the egos of the aggrieved party members. In Oyo, the 2027 guber contest is going to be one of the most intricate in the state. Development in PDP and APC will have significant influence, impact and effect on the chances of the parties. Victory in other words, may be for the swiftest, smartest and the strongest.
OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about issues affecting the Oyo state and is published every Saturday. He can be reached via @GbadeTheGreat on X, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com, and 09065176850.
