Luck and risk are siblings. They are, in the timeless words of Morgan Housel, the author of the best-selling book, The Psychology of Money, both the “reality that every outcome in life is guided by forces other than individual efforts”.
Whether an individual succeeds at an endeavor or not can be boiled down to the invisible hands of how lucky they are in the grand scheme of things. In this case, luck is not just about having everything on a silver platter. It is, in other words, being the right person, doing the right thing, with the right people at the right time and in the right place.
One single omission from that delicate chain of events can automatically unravel the thread and spell doom in no small measure. For instance, you don’t want to be the right person, doing the right thing, with the right people, at the right time, but in the wrong place.
Of course, nowhere is this luck/risk dilemma more troubling and rewarding than in the chaotic and mudslinging world of politics. In politics, your strategies will hang more on luck than on anything else. To win an election, for instance, you will wish to have a weak, deeply divided, and disunited opposition. As a matter of fact, you will benefit more from an opposition that is in disarray than from the unity of your own party. To win an election, therefore, goes beyond campaign strategies or the financial war-chest. Everything must work in your favor while everything else works against your opponents.
In Oyo State, over the last five years, I have written extensively about the administration of Governor Seyi Makinde as one of the lone voices exposing the rot and the administrative malfeasance inside the government, at a great personal cost. One of my stories once exposed the sheer scale of corruption in the state Teaching Service Commission (TESCOM).
After my story broke in March, 2022, in an embarrassing twist, the then Permanent Secretary, TESCOM, Mrs. Grace Oderinde was quietly redeployed to the Office of the Head of Service for what many considered an act of punishment for bringing the government to the fore of public ridicule. Recall that the February 2021 salary of the newly recruited teachers was deliberately delayed for a year and a few months despite the timely release of funds by the government. My story forced the government to finally pay the affected staff members, leading to a minor shakeup in the commission.
The other side of that story equally exposed the forced enrolment of staff into the ‘END WELL scheme and the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS)’. I have heard people complain bitterly about the coercive and exploitative nature of the enrolment and how their consents were not sought before the direct deduction from their salary into the scheme was made.
Recently, I learnt that the newly recruited civil and public servants have also become the latest victims of that brigandage. I, alongside others, will continue to shed light on all sorts of wrongdoings across the ministry, department, and agency of the state to ensure transparency, accountability, and probity. But my little interventions have extended beyond the state MDAs, I have also written about the Makinde/Auxiliary combo, the lopsidedness of appointments under the governor, the deliberate underdevelopment of the grassroots, and, of course, the dirty politics that have clogged the wheel of progress in the reconstruction of the Agbowo Shopping Complex after many years of neglect and abandonment. That is in addition to writing extensive commentary on politics, policy, and governance in the state.
My column has primarily beamed its search light on Governor Seyi Makinde in part because to do otherwise would be an act of disservice to the public. I think it does not make any sense for all of us to sleep and face the same direction on as many contentious issues that bothered our state, as my people used to say. Debate, which is at the heart of democracy, and despite repeated threats against it, must never be allowed to die.
So, my job and those of other brave comrades have been to help the public separate the wheat of Makinde’s government falsehood, outright lies, and outlandish invective from the grains of uncomfortable truth. As a closed observer of the government, I do not doubt that Makinde’s government would be exposed to the public for what it has cleverly and repeatedly become: it is not a government of transparency, honesty, ethics and justice. I believe it was just a matter of time before the castle of lies they have built over the years comes tumbling down!
To understand how GSM found himself in this reckless financial firestorm that is threatening to consume his government, it helps to take some steps back and examine some crucial moments in his political evolution. In 2015, when he threw his hat into the gubernatorial ring, lack of luck was key to his defeat. For instance, the structure of a major party that could have shot him into state prominence was handed over to someone else.
But in 2019, when the universe decided to conspire to grant his wish, everything he ever hoped for worked in his favor. In 2015, Makinde was just an unlucky oil magnate testing the murky waters of politics. By 2019, he had become the lucky man to rule the state after the late Abiola Ajimobi. The difference between his first failed shot and the second successful attempt wasn’t about his N48 billion asset declaration or his quiet and soft-spoken nature.
Apart from being a conman whose real intention is tucked away in his disarming personality, Governor Makinde has equally benefitted largely from an opposition that was in disarray, complacency of the local media, complicity of the civil society organizations, and the disillusionment of the public over his character, competence, and capacity. As a conman, he tricked people into believing he was an honest, transparent, and credible person.
Unlike the outspoken late Ajimobi, Governor Makinde’s quietness was a game-changer for him. For that, he ruled the state cleverly, throwing the state into deep financial tailspin until he was misled into taking the biggest risks of his political career last year. By throwing the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his estranged co-traveler, FCT Minister Nyesom Wike under the bus, Mr. Makinde’s neatly packaged and saintly painted image became the first casualty in the messy and never ending political dogfight.
Today, as a conman, GSM no longer has the moral compass or the reputational leverage to speak as a leader that the media has helped build and sustain. For many, the handling of the N50 billion intervention fund came as a surprise. But for close watchers of this government, that expose was not particularly shocking. Think of the N300 billion that was secretly approved by the rubber-stamped state house of assembly. Or consider the N998 million contract awarded to dubious companies linked to Oriyomi Hamzat? Or the billions of local government allocations that have not been accounted for, or the land-grabbing spree across choice locations in the state. The list of GSM corruption is endless. One can only hope he is made to face the full extent of the law once he bows out of the government in 2027.
OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about issues affecting the Oyo state and is published every Saturday. He can be reached via @Upliftnuggets on X, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com, and 09065176850.
