How Tinubu’s Political Masterstroke Caged Makinde in Oyo | Maroof Asudemade

The political chessboard of Oyo State witnessed a masterstroke by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, one that frustrated Governor Seyi Makinde’s plan to foist Bimbo Adekanmbi as his successor on Oyo APC through a carefully calculated political arrangement.

Makinde’s interview with Isaac Brown this evening has raised questions about his sudden endorsement of Bimbo Adekanmbi, a former Commissioner for Finance under the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi, for a ministerial appointment. Why would a governor who once accused the Ajimobi administration of corruption turn around to recommend one of its principal financial officers for a federal appointment?

The question becomes even more intriguing when Adekanmbi’s past role in defending the Ajimobi administration is recalled.

When Makinde assumed office in 2019, his administration levelled allegations of corruption against its predecessor. Adekanmbi, however, appeared on Splash FM to challenge those allegations and defend the financial record of the government he served. He also challenged Makinde’s then Commissioner for Finance to a public debate on the state’s finances during the Ajimobi era. That challenge, according to the account, was never taken up.

Yet, years later, Makinde acknowledged that Adekanmbi played an active role in stabilising Ajimobi’s administration and recommended him to President Tinubu for a ministerial appointment.

What changed? It was obvious that Makinde’s move was not merely an appreciation of competence. There was indeed a larger political calculation. When Makinde had an opportunity to present a candidate for ministerial appointment under President Tinubu due to the political alliance between the president and the G5 governors, why didn’t Makinde pick any of those working with him? Why Adekanmbi, who was then a staunch APC chieftain? Makinde was ready to extend his political godfatherism to Oyo APC.

In politics, timing and motive matter. One plausible interpretation is that Makinde saw an opportunity to position Adekanmbi for greater political relevance ahead of the 2027 governorship succession battle. A ministerial appointment could provide the former commissioner with national visibility, political connections, and a stronger public profile.

If Adekanmbi were eventually to emerge as a minister, such an appointment could, in theory, have served as a platform for building that ambition. Makinde must have thought that picking Adekanmbi, who was an APC member, would meet little or no opposition than if he picked another person from his party.

But President Tinubu was smarter as he settled for Bayo Adelabu, who was then in Accord. Though there was an uproar from Oyo APC over the choice of Bayo Adelabu as minister, little did Oyo APC know that picking Adelabu was a blessing in disguise for them as picking Adekanmbi would have pushed Oyo APC into Makinde’s laps.

President Tinubu’s handling of the matter, therefore, invites a closer examination of the competing political interests at play. The President’s decline to accept Makinde’s recommendation disrupted his succession strategy before it could gain momentum.

This is where Tinubu’s reputation as a formidable political strategist becomes relevant. He understands that appointments are not merely administrative decisions; they can reshape political influence, strengthen alliances and alter the balance of power ahead of elections.

Oyo APC must have learnt an important lesson by today’s revelation by Makinde. While the party was embroiled in internal crisis, Makinde was strategising on how to take over Oyo APC and present Adekanmbi as his preferred guber candidate at the polls.

Makinde has every right to recommend individuals he considers competent for public office. But Oyo APC also has a responsibility to scrutinise the political implications of such recommendations, particularly when the state’s succession politics are already taking shape.

Ultimately, the credit goes to President Tinubu who deliberately thwarted Makinde’s plan to install Adekanmbi as his successor in APC.

Nevertheless, the episode highlights the intricate calculations that can lie behind seemingly straightforward political endorsements. There was indeed a succession strategy behind Makinde’s recommendation. But Tinubu’s decision upset the calculations.

Yet, Makinde owes the public a convincing explanation of how his assessment of Adekanmbi evolved from the bitter political disputes of 2019 to a recommendation for ministerial office.

In Oyo politics, nothing should be taken at face value. The real contest for 2027 have begun long before the parties formally selected their candidates.