Behind The Curtain: Makinde’s Presidential Bid In Focus | Muftau Gbadegesin

On the many editions of the State Affairs Program, veteran broadcaster, Edmund Obilo believes Governor Seyi Makinde is a Presidential material.

He speaks highly of him, in awe and in profound admiration. He thinks Seyi Makinde is a political disruptor on a massive, tectonic and seismic scale. He often marvels at his calm demeanor, quiet but unpredictable politics, and the giant strides that are dotted across the nooks and crannies of the state.

From road infrastructure to the workers welfare, he considers Makinde up and above most Nigerian politicians. In one edition of the program, Obilo argues that Makinde, an outsider-insider in the country’s political landscape, is endowed with the ability to trap his political enemies in their own game. He says Makinde is a grandmaster at confusing his enemies about his next political move.

Hard to see the Obilo that was tough and unsparing on late Abiola Ajimobi’s administration tackle Makinde on many of his flip-flops. But that is by the way, human nature. Someone sees six, another sees nine. Perspective is all that matters. But perspective without balance risks something else, hypocrisy.

Particularly when perspective has to do with the murky waters of politics, policy and governance and most importantly, about the people. We can acknowledge the good of a politician without elevating them beyond their capacity. In Ibadan, Makinde’s footprints might be everywhere. Not so across the rest of the state where the last seven years of Governor Seyi Makinde has brought arrested development. Any leader that considers the plight of the grassroots as a mere noise is nothing but a mere opportunist with the loudest megaphone.

That perhaps, with his tight grip on top media personalities and platforms in the state explain his decision to run for the top job in the country. The hope, it is being argued, would be to elevate his status and persona beyond the state and unto national consciousness.

Exactly two years ago, on September 7, 2024, this columnist described Governor Makinde’s Presidential ambition as a joke, an attempt to divert and distract the public from his many misgivings. Of course, this columnist still holds onto that earlier submission that Makinde’s presidential ambition has no ground to stand on and is dead on arrival.

But in the light of new revelation, two strands of thoughts have emerged in respect to Makinde’s decision to step up as a Presidential candidate.

First off, most of his supporters and followers now believe albeit in secret, that Makinde’s decision to aspire for the highest office in the land was premised on the urgent need to brighten and increase the chances of his hand-picked and personally imposed national assembly candidates — given the unpopularity of their newfound political party. In a way, the abysmal results in the previous elections must have jolted the Governor and his party to think his presence on the ballot would somehow offer some electoral magic on the D-day.

In two different election cycles for instance, Makinde’s party not only performed poorly but went on to concede more seats to the APC. In 2019 for example, APC won both the Oyo North and Central senatorial districts, leaving the south to the PDP — on the account of people’s discontent with late Abiola Ajimobi, the APC candidate in the district. Out of the 14 National Assembly seats, APC won nine (9), leaving the rest for the PDP. In 2023, the result was even more sobering for Makinde and his party. In that contest, APC won all the three senatorial districts and eight (8) reps seats, leaving the remaining 6 to the PDP. One more seat was clinched by the PDP in the Bye election after the death of Musiliu Olaide, the former lawmaker from Ibadan North Federal Constituency.

The whisper in the governor’s inner circle is that the only way to redeem that battered image was for the governor to appear on the ballot alongside his party’s flag bearers. By appearing on the ballot as the Presidential candidate, the millions of electorates in the state would automatically and auto-magically vote Makinde for President and the candidates of his Party for the national assembly without batting an eyelid. For this columnist and many right thinking observers, that kind of strategy is lame and off-kilter. One, data does not support that kind of permutation and proposition.

A counterpoint to this heuristic might be the boon that came in the way of APC candidates in 2015 when the Buhari’s tidal wave swept almost everywhere particularly in the southwest and in Oyo State. But late Buhari, apart from being a former military dictator, was no stranger to national politics. Until his victory in 2015, he had thrown his hat into the presidential race not once or twice but three unsuccessful times. That he emerged victorious and helped some members of his party along the way wasn’t an accident of some sort. Because, ultimately, most beneficiaries of his tidal wave eventually went on to build their own political base that in effect has outlived that era. This columnist submitted that Governor Makinde is not late Muhammadu Buhari. There’s no basis for such comparison.

The other argument provided by the influential members of the Makinde’s administration to justify the presidential bid of their boss is the need for them to be on the stronger side of the negotiating table in case the Presidency extends their hands of negotiation to them. In 2011, most power brokers who opposed the re-election bid of late Adebayo Alao-Akala went to former President Goodluck Jonathan regarding the state’s gubernatorial contest: we will deliver you massive votes but don’t meddle in the governorship race. Jonathan obliged and in the end, Akala’s government was defeated in one of Nigeria’s closest, fiercest and breathtaking races.

This columnist believes that given the performance of President Tinubu in Oyo state in 2023, where he had closed to 500K votes and the mounting opposition against his re-election, the possibility of reaching out to Makinde, the relatively popular governor of Oyo state to sheath his sword, align with the center and be given a soft landing might formed part of the political calculation influencing the Makinde’s run for the country’s top job. Of course, Governor Makinde is not contesting the Presidential election to win. He has no such clout, capacity, and warchest to defeat an incumbent President with his Special Purpose Vehicle, the Allied People’s Movement now and in the future. The thinking behind his aspiration, this columnist contends might be to injure the APC in Oyo State such that their claim of presence and grassroot appeals is taking away from them for a long while. Whether that ultimately materialises is a proposition for the future.

PLAIN TALK is Muftau Gbadegesin’s commentary on contemporary socio-political Issues affecting Oyo State and beyond. He writes every Saturday and can be reached on X and muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com