OYO State is reputed as the political headquarters of the South-West and, since the days of the Premier of the defunct Western Region, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Ibadan, its capital, has always demonstrated a high-class level of political mastery. Elections in Oyo have shown that the state is wired for high politicking and unpredictable outcomes. Oyo politics is not for the lily-livered; it is not known to follow any pattern or permutation. In the present democratic dispensation, the mighty had fallen while those who were less-favoured had emerged governors.
In 1979, at the advent of the Second Republic, the late Cicero of Esa Oke, Chief Bola Ige, won convincingly on the platform of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN). The party revolved around the political leadership of the sage, Chief Awolowo, himself being the first Premier of the defunct Western Region, an administrator par excellence. It was easier to sell the candidacy of Ige, being from the school of the sage. His contest for a second term in 1983 was, however, not easy as his first victory. He lost out, not because he was not competent or didn’t perform creditably well, but because he was entrapped in a cobweb of intriguing politics. He was unlucky with the Ibadan people, who preferred the ‘son of the soil’ in the person of Dr Victor Omololu Olunloyo.
At the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999, the same Ige, who lost out in 1983, had become a force so powerful to reckon with. It was he, in his glamour at the historic Mapo Hall in Ibadan, who raised the hands of the late Lam Adesina as the candidate of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) for the Oyo State governorship election. Convincingly, Adesina won. He defeated the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the election, Alhaji Yekeen Adeojo. The great Lam, as he was fondly called, was a friend to the teachers and workers in the state. He was popular for his great strides and educational advancement. He was, however, unlucky in his second term bid. Oyo politics happened to him. His main contender, Senator Rashidi Ladoja, was favoured by the elite to win the governorship election held on April 19, 2003. The rest became history.
At the inception of his administration in 2003, Ladoja became the toast of civil servants. He was loved by all. He was paying salary promptly and incentives too. He also embarked on some projects, including construction of modern classrooms. Notwithstanding his supposed popularity and high performance, Oyo politics happened to him. He was ousted by a minority of the lawmakers. He was removed from office for 11 months. He won his case up to the Supreme Court and was reinstated. His return was late. The party, PDP, held the primary and his estranged deputy, Chief Adebayo Alao-Akala, who held the forte for 11 months while his former boss was in exile, was the choice of the party for the 2007 election.
Ladoja played the spoiler role for his party in the election. Though he remained in PDP, he asked the electorate to vote for another candidate, Senator Abiola Ajimobi of the then All Nigeria Progressive Party (ANPP). Unfortunately, Ajimobi’s support base was not strong enough to earn him victory. Some analysts, however, believe that Ajimobi won the election, though Alao-Akala was declared winner.
On his emergence, Alao-Akala became so popular and earned the sobriquet, ‘O Yato Governor’. He was a freestyle governor, very easy to approach and always found among his people. He also opened up some roads, including the popular Akala Expressway at New Garage area in Ibadan. He loved spending money and his supporters always hailed him for that. He played the typical amala politics as he learnt it from Molete, the residence of the late strongman of Ibadan politics, High Chief Lamidi Adedibu. At the time he was preparing to run for a second term in office in 2011, Ajimobi, his erstwhile opponent, had moved to the then defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Also, his former boss, Ladoja, had formed Accord, a party founded solely for people in the grassroots. Akala, therefore, had a hurdle to cross to emerge for a second term as governor of Oyo State. During the kick-off of his campaign at Mapo Hall, various speakers had predicted easier path to victory for him. Alas, Akala lost the election to Ajimobi.
Ladoja also lost his bid to return to the Agodi Government House. Notable is the fact that Akala spent more on the election that he lost in 2011 than on the election that he won in 2007.
Ajimobi broke the second term jinx as he convincingly defeated Senator Ladoja of Accord, Chief Alao-Akala of Labour Party (LP), Senator Teslim Folarin of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Seyi Makinde of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the election held on April 11, 2015.
With the victory, Ajimobi became the first Oyo State governor to be re-elected for a second term.
In the 2019 election, though Ajimobi is unarguably the modern architect of Oyo State, his popularity had waned, especially among the state workforce. Most of his policies had pitched him with the people, including his battle with the then Olubadan of Ibadan, Oba Saliu Adetunji. His party lost the governorship to the incumbent Governor Makinde while the former governor lost out in the senatorial race, against a somewhat weaker opponent in Senator Kola Balogun.
As it was in 2015 when the election was keenly contested among Ajimobi, Ladoja, Akala, Folarin and Makinde, the 2023 election will be contested among Makinde, Folarin and the candidate of the Accord, Chief Bayo Adelabu. In 2015, the three major contestants are from All Progressives Congress (APC), Accord and Labour Party. In 2023, the three major contestants are candidates of the PDP, APC and Accord, to wit, Seyi Makinde, Teslim Folarin and Adebayo Adelabu, respectively. The question now is: Will Makinde reenact Ajimobi’s feat by winning his second term bid as Oyo governor? Who will the odds favour this time?
Makinde
He is the incumbent governor. He won the election through a coalition of parties against the APC administration. Makinde as the incumbent governor will go into the election with more resources at his disposal. He has aides, party structures and goodwill to bank upon for his electoral victory. He is also campaigning across the state on his style of governance, projects executed, prompt payment of salary and pension, reform in revenue sectors, among others.
From the beginning of the week, he had been bagging endorsements, though some of them are controversial, for the second term bid. The Labour Party (LP) in the state dumped its candidate and declared support for Makinde, same with Accord.
The governor is, however, facing stiff opposition from members of the coalition that brought him into power. Many of them had pitched tent with other parties in the state in a quest to wrest power from him. From every zone that makes up the state, the governor had lost major supporters. The likes of Honourable Ajibola Muraina from Ibarapa zone and Honourable Mulikat Akande-Adeola from Ogbomoso zone had ditched him; Senator Femi Lanlehin has also returned to APC, among many other notable personalities.
Makinde is also battling the national leadership of the party for retaining the national chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu, after the emergence of the party’s presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. It is on record that there has been dissent among members of the party in the state after the body language of the governor showed he did not support Atiku for his presidential ambition.
At the presidential rally held at the Mapo Hall, Ibadan, Makinde was conspicuously absent. Eventually, Atiku lost the election, in fact, he lost with a wider margin in Oyo State. Feelers have it that most of the aggrieved members will wait for a reprisal against the governor. A victory for the presidential candidate of the APC, Senator Bola Tinubu, mean all arsenal will be let loose to ensure Makinde is not returned as governor.
Another snag on Makinde’s path to victory is the subtle battle with the traditional institution in the state. His relationship with the institution has nosedived as he reportedly no longer enjoyed the rapport he used to have with the traditional rulers pre-2019. One of such is his relationship with the Olubadan of Ibadanland, Oba Balogun, who, it was reported, felt slighted by the ditching of his brother, Senator Kola Balogun, in the senatorial race in the PDP. Makinde had favoured another aspirant, Joseph Tegbe, for the Oyo South senatorial district. Tragically, Tegbe lost the election.
Adelabu
He is not a newcomer in the race. Adelabu, it was, who ran on the platform of the APC in 2019 against the coalition that brought in the incumbent governor, Makinde. By his experience in 2019, Adelabu should stand a better chance to run for the governorship. The candidate is a technocrat with good financial knowledge, having retired as the deputy governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the build-up to the 2019 election. On losing the election, Adelabu kept shoring up his fan base, though he lost out in the bid to emerge as the APC governorship candidate. The fallout of the APC primary forced him and many of his loyalists and other aggrieved parties to Accord.
Unlike 2019, Adelabu is not enjoying the strong support base of the party in power. The party is not also pulling weight. The result of the February 25 presidential and National Assembly election showed the party was not in contention. He, alongside a few others, will have to bankroll the activities of the party, which made a storm in the history of the state during the 2011 and 2015 elections.
Incidentally, while Adelabu was planning to prove he has the same strength as Ladoja, who pulled a surprise with the relatively new party to become a force to reckon with in the 2011 election in Oyo State, the party seems to have left him behind as there are reports of romance with Governor Makinde. Some of those who are sympathetic to Adelabu have also been having a rethink after the February 25 election. A picture of Governor Makinde with Honourable Shina Peller who was the senatorial candidate of Accord for Oyo North showed that the lawmaker had realigned and working for the governor. The development may dwindle the fortune of Adelabu at the poll.
Folarin
Folarin is not a newcomer in the game. He vied for the position in 2015 on the ticket of the PDP and lost. He has since moved to the APC and won the election for the Senate in 2019. Upon his emergence as the party’s choice for 2023, some members of the party felt aggrieved. Some left the party, others stayed put, though with a plan to work against his victory. It was the belief that he, alongside the late former governor of Oyo State, Chief Alao-Akala, hijacked the party structure. It has been a Herculean task for him bringing some of the aggrieved members to the fold and harmonising the structure to achieve a desired end.
His recent reconciliatory move seems to have paid off as he had successfully won back some of those who had vowed to work against him. The APC structure is becoming bigger by the day and the personal move of the presidential candidate, Senator Tinubu, to appeal to the aggrieved members became a catalyst for Folarin’s victory.
Folarin may also benefit from the aggrieved members of the coalition that ensured Makinde’s victory in 2019. Many of them had vowed to pay the incumbent governor back in his coin. He will also enjoy the patronage of some aggrieved former colleagues in the PDP and may likely be a sole beneficiary of the Atiku-Makinde feud at the end of the day.
Another factor that will buoy his electoral luck is the victory of Tinubu in the February 25 election. Most of those who had remained on the fence about his governorship ambition now have no choice but to join the train to make APC reclaim Oyo State. With Tinubu’s victory, Folarin’s chances are bright as the president-elect would also be planning ahead for his re-election in 2027. Having lost Osun to the opposition, Tinubu will want a foothold in his region of South-West.
The public endorsement of Folarin by Tinubu during the massive presidential campaign rally in Ibadan is a pointer to the fact that Folarin is enjoying the goodwill of Oyo voters and may ride on that to coast home to victory. The rally was described as unprecedented, with a massive turnout by enthusiastic supporters who waited almost 10 hours at the Mapo Hall venue for Tinubu’s arrival. The loud noise of ‘Tesi Lokan’ on Tinubu’s arrival is a proof that the guber candidate of the APC is in the race to secure victory.
Unlike Makinde, who seems to have fallen out of love with the traditional institution in the state, especially Ibadan, Folarin enjoys the support of Ibadan elite, himself being on the Olubadan chieftaincy ladder and the current Asaaju Olubadan of Ibadanland. Some Ibadan elite view Makinde as belonging to the Ibadan less city stock and would want ‘the son of the soil’ governing the state from 2023. Folarin, the first-ever third-term senator in Oyo State, will also enjoy the support of the Oyo Central electorate, the senatorial district where he had held sway since 2003 and which was eventually won by Yunus Akintude, the candidate of the APC, while also enjoying more support of the Ogbomoso, Oke Ogun, Ibarapa and even Oyo zones.
The success of the APC in the February 25 election, with the party winning the three senatorial districts and eight out of the 12 federal constituencies declared so far by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is really a plus for Folarin. The successful candidates and, even those who lost out, are unanimous in their decision to ensure victory for their principal. The victory has placed the party on a winning pedestal.
Lastly and to put the icing on the cake, the endorsement of former governor, Senator Rashidi Ladoja, himself being the acclaimed father of politics in Oyo State, is a big plus for Folarin. Ladoja, throughout last week and since the commencement of the week, in company with the senator-elect for Oyo South, Sarafadeen Ali, had continued to sell the candidacy of Folarin to groups and associations in the state.
