On campaign trails in the buildup to the 2023 general elections, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu made promises that made his future cabinet ministers grit their teeth in anticipation.
One of such big promises was the President’s bold declaration to fix the decades old rot, inefficiency and infrastructural decay in the power sector within four years.
“If I do not provide steady electricity in my first four years”, the President said with a swag “do not vote me for a second term”.
For many decades, the Nigerian power sector has defied virtually all practical solutions. In the 4th republic alone, successive administrations have set up committees upon committees and budgeted billions of naira to tackle the menace only to take five steps forward and another five steps backward.
Under Olusegun Obasanjo for instance, a whooping N16 billion was widely reported to have been sunk into the sector without yielding any tangible results.
As the first civilian head of state in the 4th Republic, the OBJ’s administration must have been buoyed by the success recorded in the telecoms industry which saw Nigeria Telecommunication Limited (NITEL) radically transformed from the “state-owned monopoly to a liberalized, private-sector-led industry”. To that effect, the government began transforming the defunct National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) into Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) in 2005, thereby allowing investors to place their bet in the system.
That change of name was formalized through the Electric Power Sector Reform (EPSR) Act of 25, which unbundled NEPA into 18 successor companies (11 distribution, six generation, and one transmission).
By 2007 when the OBJ government reluctantly handed over power to the late Umar Musa Yar’adua’s administration, the numerous problems in power had remained largely unresolve with many Nigerians describing NEPA as ‘Never Expect Power Always’ and PHCN as ‘Problem Has Changed Name’.
As part of his Seven-Point Agenda, the late Yar’adua’s government considered power as a critical component in the country’s industrialization moves, and then aimed to transition Nigeria from a low-power, generator-reliant economy to a developed industrial nation by 2015. Yar’adua’s death 2010 abruptly cut short his agenda thereby opening the doors for the Goodluck Jonathan’s administration. On his part, the GEJ government equally made noticeable move to fix the power sector.
Most important among the government’s plan was the constitution of the Presidential Action Committee on Power. The privatization of the distribution value chain of the sector: IBEDC, for instance, was considered the most consequential of all the committee’s impact. While that unbundling was seen as the right step in the right direction, the opacity and lack of transparency that shrouded the deal made it counterproductive (there were allegations that the privatization failed largely because it was riddled with corruption, nepotism and favoritism). The late Muhammadu Buhari’s era equally focused on expanding generation and transmission capacity, decentralizing regulation, and promoting renewable energy through the Presidential Power initiative (PPI) with Siemens. The government also had former Lagos State Governor, Babatunde Fashola as the substantive minister of power in the first tenure.
Fashola’s successor, Saleh Mamman was alleged to have embezzled N31 billion while in office as the minister of power. He couldn’t make any significant impact as minister while chasing bags full of dollars.
So, when Oloye Bayo Adelabu, an accomplished banker who rose to become the deputy governor of CBN was announced as the minister of power, many expressed mixed feelings regarding the appointment. Initially, Oloye Adelabu started off on a solid ground, particularly with the decentralization of the sector, after the President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu signed the 2023 electricity Bill into law, which effectively broke the federal monopoly thereby empowering states, companies, and individuals to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity.
That Presidential assent, in the views of many experts was considered the masterstroke capable of judo-flipping the performance of the minister while investment pour in exponentially. When pressed about his credential to lead the ministry’s mandate, Oloye Adelabu argued that the job of a minister isn’t primarily to possess all the technical knowledge but to be able to articulate the vision of the President and meet set objectives.
Three years after his appointment, it is difficult to pinpoint to one concrete achievement recorded by the minister. Under his watch, the national grid has recorded an historic collapse. Power supply has also reduced in a record number with many preferring clean and renewable energy.
As the minister, the seat of power in Abuja even announced a total disconnect from the national grid while setting billions of naira to install solar energy. That is in addition to the minister’s trademark of always carrying power-bank in the public, an act he’s long stopped but which has come defined his time in office.
By now, the honorable Minister of Power, Oloye Bayo Adelabu is in a cold, chilling and freezing political bind, weighing his options, plotting his next while consulting widely on his next move as the Presidential directive on any cabinet member eyeing elective positions in the 2027 general elections inches closer. Many would argue that Oloye Adelabu’s biggest undoing as the minister was his gubernatorial aspiration.
From the day one as the minister of power, Oloye Adelabu wasted no time in setting the stage for the 2027 gubernatorial elections. For instance, one of his well-publicized earliest visits was to the former APC National Chairman, Abdulahi Umar Ganduje in his office. Analysts interpreted that visitation as way of preparing the ground for his ambition. That ambition also quickly influenced his decision to dump Accord Party for the APC. As he intensified politics in Ibadan, the mandate given to him began to suffer. He was in other words, chasing power instead of fixing power.
That perception in a country where less than 50 percent of the population enjoy stable power supply became the defining mark of his era: the minister of power who’s more concerned about chasing power instead of fixing. In no small measure, that became the albatross in the neck of any reforms his ministry was tasked with. That record of abysmal performance as the minister of power will continue to surface in any future engagement the minister deemed fit. For in Nigeria, the only way to determine the success or otherwise of a minister in charge of power is to ask wherre electricity get better under his watch or not. In the case of Oloye Bayo Adelabu, the answer is quite telling: so far, no so good.
Wale Oladigbolu writes about power, politics, policy, governance and everything in between exclusively about Oyo State.
