Anyone who thinks the convergence of some opposition elements in the ADC would cause the grandmaster of political coalition in Nigeria to miss a sleep must either be a political rookie, novice or deluded. This is because any coalition that has no ‘Tinubu’ as its chief strategist and ‘Buhari’ as its main arrowhead is sure to end up as a collision of strange bedfellows.
To put it modestly, it will take years of extreme diligence, refined strategy and deliberate media warfare for an opposition to snatch power from the ruling party – similar to what Tinubu and Buhari did in 2015.
Of course, in this same Nigeria, we’ve seen how a sitting President watched as the opposition clipped the wings of his party and thwarted his re-election bid. It was one of the most iconic, breathtaking and epochal moments in the political evolution of the country. That an opposition would mount a roadblock against a sitting President and derail his trip without breaking a sweat and spilling innocent blood.
By the time the final result of that chest thumping contest trickled-in, amid nationwide tension and global concern, that President had told his staff to pack his stuff. The Transition Hour had finally come; time to head back to the village where life was easy, less chaotic and quite predictable.
In essence, President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan lost the 2015 Presidential election for many obvious reasons. He fought those with the clouts and bought those with the ordinary mouth – the paperweight politicians who only say what the President wanted to hear and not what he needed to hear. Take 2011. The death of former President Umar Musa Yar’dua meant that his vice would have to take the leadership baton. In Power, Politics and Death, Journalist Olusegun Adeniyi reminded us of the dilemma, uncertainty, tension, “marked by secrecy, political maneuvering and constitutional ambiguity” that went into that transition hour.
After the common sense eventually prevailed through the doctrine of necessity in the National Assembly, the attention of politicians mostly of northern extraction peremptorily shifted to the next poll — 2011. As opposition to his accidental rule threatened the fragile peace and stability of the country, GEJ knew what to do.
His first point of call was to the National leader of the defunct ACN, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Interestingly, that alliance worked because GEJ secured his first term in office despite stiff opposition by northern political hegemons. Notoriously, the moment he successfully consolidated his power, GEJ quietly turned against his benefactors and stirred a war that would ultimately consume him. The end was a tragedy.
Then 2015 came. It was time to seek re-election. In that moment of heated political debate, GEJ’s political stamina had waned, tragically. By the time he woke up from slumber, it was simply too late. The die is cast, as Julius Caesar fired in William Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar. In a way, nothing could redeem or salvage the fate of the President who grew up with no shoes but allowed corruption to grow rapidly under his watch.
While GEJ put up a good, and spirited, he was no match for the combined strategies of the defunct ACN and CPC. The rest as they say is now history. My contention is that to have a repeat of historic 2015 political upset, characters of similar features would have to join and commit the same level of resources and thinking into making this work – this I believe is lacking as the ADC and others contends with numerous perils and pitfalls that often befall those who want to wrestle power from the ruling class.
As the next election beckons, we’ve watched with relish and dismay (depends on where you stand) how a President continues to hack the trees of the opposition. The main opposition PDP (ADC has no governor yet) has been at the receiving end of this political fisticuff. First it was Delta where the super structure of the PDP was hacked to the ground. Then Akwa Ibom. Others are soon to follow. Instead of the opposition winning souls as it was in 2014, the reverse appears to be the case. By this account, I am not insinuating that President Tinubu cannot be defeated.
Recall in 2023, President Tinubu was defeated at his own turf by Peter Obi to the chagrin of his supporters. Whether by crook or hook, the simple fact that a Peter Obi of the Labor Party shocked the whole country when he flogged the President in his homestead erases his invincibility. To beat a sitting President, Tinubu had to first lock-horns with President Olusegun Obasanjo.
That standoff between him and OBJ starting from seizure of Lagos allocation effectively emboldened the President to take more ambitious and audacious steps. By 2007, he fielded OBJ former Vice President and political rival, Atiku Abubakar as the defunct ACN Presidential candidate. That plot enabled him to build friends across the Niger, a pact that he sustained over the years. Then 2011 came. Although, he fielded Nuhu Ribadu, GEJ smart moves meant that a southerner would be favored by the political gladiator.
“I don’t yet see anyone in this coalition who can scheme and plan over 16 years”, Datti Baba-Ahmed confessed in his recent interview “with all due respect to Atiku, he has contested consistently – this will be the seventh time. But tell me: is there anyone else in the coalition who will say. “Let it be the other person, and I will support them”? I’m yet to see that. Everyone seems only interested in their own candidacy”.
“But what did Tinubu do? He invested in Buhari, unreliable as Buhari was. He backed him – and after Buhari, he took over. He stayed committed for 16 years and took it in 2023”.
Anyone who thinks Tinubu, that gave Atiku the ACN in 2007, Ribadu in 2011, backed Buhari in 2015 and 2019 under the APC and waited until 2023 to take power himself would easily cower, grovel and cringe at the collapse of a section of the PDP (Atiku), LP (Obi) and angry APC members (Amaechi, Malami, Aregbesola etc) into African Democratic Congress (ADC), a party founded and funded by former President Olusegun Obasanjo should have a rethink.
In Think Again, Adam Grant urges politicians to think like scientists – question assumptions, embrace humility, welcome dissent, and adapt to new evidence. He argued that instead of preaching or seeking approval, they should foster open dialogue, accept complexity and persuade through curiosity and thoughtful questions.
OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about issues affecting the Oyo state and is published every Saturday. He can be reached via @Upliftnuggets on X, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com, and 09065176850.
