In politics, ambition is not a sin. What becomes dangerous is ambition without loyalty, strategy without trust, and power without restraint. As Nigeria inches closer to another decisive electoral cycle, one name that should worry political alliances and the Presidency alike is Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State. Makinde has carefully, deceitfully projected the image of a progressive, independent-minded governor, presenting himself as calm, technocratic, and principled. But beneath that polished exterior lies a political pattern that should set off alarm bells for any alliance banking on unity, discipline, and collective survival. The lesson is simple: Seyi Makinde plays for Seyi Makinde first.
Makinde has a record of convenient alliances. His political journey is marked by strategic alignment only when it serves his immediate interest. His role during the 2023 elections remains fresh in public memory. At a critical moment when party cohesion was required, Makinde openly aligned with the G5 governors, effectively undermining his party’s presidential candidate. That rebellion was not accidental, nor was it ideological; it was utterly transactional. Once his second-term ambition was secured, the so-called rebellion melted away. No apologies. No genuine reconciliation. Just a smooth return to business as usual.
This pattern matters because anyone who could undercut his own party at the national level will think nothing of doing the same to a broader political alliance, or even a sitting Presidency, that is if personal calculations demand it.
A morbid Makinde’s mantra is power without party discipline. Makinde has mastered the art of being inside the system while working against its spirit. He enjoys federal relevance, national visibility, and elite backing, yet he resists party discipline and collective decision-making. For alliances, this is a red flag! Alliances thrive on predictability, compromise, and mutual sacrifice. Makinde thrives on leverage. He positions himself as indispensable, then negotiates from a place of quiet defiance. Today, he may smile at the table; tomorrow he may flip the board, politely.
For a Presidency that depends on coalition politics, such a figure as Makinde is not an asset but a liability.
With the 2027 question becoming deafening, there is a growing speculation about Makinde’s national ambition; whether as a kingmaker, presidential or vice-presidential hopeful, or power broker. Whatever form it takes, one thing is clear: he will not subordinate that ambition to any alliance unless the outcome is fully guaranteed in his favour.
This makes him dangerous in high-stakes negotiations. He does not merely seek inclusion; he seeks control of outcomes. If denied, he is prepared to destabilize the process quietly, using proxies, media narratives, and strategic silence. A Presidency that ignores this reality does so at its own peril.
Makinde’s regional strongmanship is a recipe for national uncertainty. His firm grip on Oyo State politics has emboldened him. But dominance in one state does not automatically translate into national trustworthiness. In fact, it can breed overconfidence. Nigeria’s fragile political balance cannot afford leaders who see alliances as disposable and loyalty as optional. The Presidency needs partners who will hold the line in difficult moments, not those who calculate exits when the tide turns.
Makinde is the smiling dissenter. He is not loud. He appears not reckless. That is precisely why he is dangerous. He dissents with a smile, undermines with courtesy, and exits with plausible deniability.
Political history, both in Nigeria and beyond, is littered with examples of leaders who underestimated such figures. They mistook calmness for commitment and sophistication for loyalty. By the time the damage became clear, it was already done.
This is not a call for exclusion, but for caution. Political alliances and the Presidency must engage Seyi Makinde with eyes wide open. Trust must be earned, not assumed. Commitments must be concrete, not cosmetic because when ambition collides with alliance loyalty, Makinde has already shown us which side he chooses. And Nigeria cannot afford surprises at the centre.
