The battle for the soul of Nigeria is already gathering steam, chewing up and spitting out contestant into the country’s highest office in trove; with each stepping into the arena for the long haul in full political regalia. The drama, dilemma, gimmicks and dynamics that will shape and shake next year elections continue to hit the ground running, unfolding in an incredibly unprecedented way. Just two month into the year and the political waters have never been so muddled. Consequently, aspirants from various political parties are also defying odds, making bold statements about their dreams, ambitions and aspirations – for the country and its impoverished population.
More will still come out.
In addition, the political atmosphere is also charging up, becoming chaotically unpredictable, profoundly treacherous and unimaginably difficult, holding people by the throats while various gladiators roll out the drums in preparation for one of the toughest political face-off in the country’s political trajectory. Similarly, in this stiff battle lies the acclaimed kingmaker, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, his disciples, and the party he’s helped to build. Likewise, on the other side of the spectrum also lies the veteran Presidential hopeful, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, whose Aso Villa ambition now spanned three decades — though yet to declare his ambition. Like Asiwaju is to his estranged godsons, so also will Alhaji Atiku contends with some of the brightest minds in the PDP who have waited for this strategic time to take their shots at the seat of power – it’s going to be tough there, too.
Admittedly, the usual battle of wit and wisdom will again play out and each characters and contenders in the political drama will be defined by their stamina, artistry, creativity and clearly, deep pockets. But amid this political rubble pancaked by the distortion and disruption of public conversations lies the bitter truth: that the disenchanted Nigeria people will again be at the receiving end of this battle. Clearly, the twin problems of poverty and tribalism will play out the usual depressing roles and the chaos that may descend upon the polity may be novel in our political trajectory. Who sail the hurdles?
Unfortunately, predicting the lots of many strong contenders is never going to be a walk in the park. Likewise, dismissing aspirants with a wave of hand may not be simple as it may appears to be.
In part because Nigeria is not grounded in the research crunching institutions that can comb through people’s sentiments, preferences, prejudices, biases and then tease out surprising and accurate prediction. The type of pollsters that continue to drive United States of America politics. But tellingly, the harrowing experience of 2016 in the United States where pollsters predicted Hillary Clinton to win the election only for Donald Trump to clinch victory has shown that data crunching bodies or pollsters may not be as solidly reliable in predicting with accurate precision who the winner of an election might be. But still, that humbling experience, for instance, has helped challenged the status quo and helped refined the age long data crunching mechanism for efficiency and service delivery.
In a sense, and as we approach next year election, there would be predictions and projections, prophecy and pontification; plus, a whole gamut of intensive energy that is being channeled in the direction of the contest – even at this formative period; one that’s akin to the eventful year of 1993. And one that’s likely to alter and rattle the country’s political equation, calculation and permutation for the next few decades. In part because the various elections we’ve had in the past seems to be preparing us for this decisive moment. And for the first time in a while, after M.K.O Abiola 1993 epiphany, with his popularity, acceptability, and moneybag, we seems to be having another date with history.
In another instance, Oyo state, playing that pace setting role seem poised to lead other state in the region as next elections beckons. In part because the state Governor, Engineer Seyi Makinde is the leader of the opposition party in the region and by that appears to have the final say on who gets what, when and how, as Harold Lasswell defined politics. Already, there have been accusations and allegations against the Governor handling of parties affairs and his penchant for imposition of unpopular candidates. How much this play out is a matter of time. In other words, 2023 elections is going to be a defining moment in the political evolution of Nigeria in general and that of Oyo state in particular.
Interestingly, we might not even have to wait till next year before we start to see the hand writing of what may unfold in the general election on the wall. The Ekiti and Osun gubernatorial elections are clear indications of what to expect in the coming election. For example, political analysts have always opined that the off-season election in the country provides clear window into the heart and mind plus the preparation of the electoral umpire in addressing issues around logistics and improvement of the system. As such, rather than see the off-season elections as aberration or one that can easily be described in isolation, those polls are now being used to assess the performance of the electoral body, its readiness to deliver a credible and fair and transparent election — across the country and the electorates attitude to the poll. In a way, who win this two election appears well motivated to confront subsequent poll in a optimistic and passionate way.
More importantly, the acceptability and popularity of the leadership of PDP in the southwest led by Oyo state Governor will also be tested in those two off-season elections. While the gubernatorial candidate for Ekiti election has already emerged, all eyes are on that of Osun, with its tension soaked intra-party affairs. But given the various political stones hurled at the Governor by members of his party, it is safe to say that there is more to what is being displayed in the public than we know. Former Governor of Ekiti, Ayodele Fayose was the first to cast aspersion on and then call the attention of the public to the beatification of area boys plus the continuous use of thugs to intimidate and harass political rivals of the Governor. He made that state in Osogbo at the venue of the PDP zonal congress which produced Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja, the Governor backed candidate as the winner.
In addition, the unexpected public outcry against the high-handedness of the Governor by the acclaimed activist, Deji Adeyanju also lend credence to that allegation which has continue to defined the Governor’s image outside of the state. Similarly, David Adeleke aka Davido’s outburst against his respected politician, apparently referring to the Governor, provides another clear and compelling example of his negative perceived visibility outside of the state. To look at the bitter inter wrangling tearing Oyo APC apart is to see the chances before the Governor in the next poll.
Unless the opposition APC puts it house, it may not stand a chance in challenging the second term bid of the Governor. Whichever way, there is so much suspense hanging in the air as 2023 general elections beckon.
OYO101, Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion on issues affecting Oyo State, is published on Saturdays. He can be reached via muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com and 09065176850.
