Governor Seyi Makinde is expected to be in the country any moment from now after spending four weeks globetrotting and vacationing in places shrouded in secrecy and mystery. In his bimonthly newsletter, which he sent on Thursday, August 5, 2024, Governor Makinde expressed his desire to resume work and commission a few projects that the people of Oyo state will be proud of.
“My four-week vacation ends this Friday, so I’m back on the grind on Monday. I am looking forward to a few projects we will be flagging off and commissioning this October in agribusiness and tourism space. I am not about to let the cat completely out of the bag, but I can assure you that they are projects that we all will be proud of,” he noted in the 97th edition of the newsletter titled Back on the Grind.
He also shared his book of the month titled “The Situation Room: The Inside Story of Presidents in Crisis,” written by George Stephanopoulos, apparently a jibe on the President, Bola Ahmed Tiinubu whose government has endured a series of economic crises since taking over the country in May 2023. While the governor’s holiday trip at a time the state grapples with challenges draw sharp criticism, particularly from the opposition, his supporters argued the rest is needed for him to relax after months of piloting the state. The ceremonial transfer of power to the acting governor, Barr. Abdulraheem Adebayo Lawal, enabled him proceed on the leave, first relaxing in Ibadan, where he hosted all the 33 council chairmen, with a view to tricking the public into believing he was at home with them before dashing out of the country.
In a saner clime, the whereabouts of a governor who feeds off public money ought not to turn into a high-decibel slanging match in the public. Except in Nigeria and particularly in Oyo State, a governor’s vacation destination may snowball into a hot-button conversation within a twinkle of an eye. Take late Abiola Ajimobi. He was reputed to frequently travel to the UK for either relaxation or to broker deals or meet political leaders. Granted, governors, regardless of their party affiliations, like the rest of us deserved all the rest in the world to perform optimally and excellently. But a situation where you have some governors signing investment deals in faraway China, one that will enhance the economic viability and infrastructural strides of their respective states, while your governor chills in a train somewhere in Europe is, quite literally, off putting.
Away from the governor’s globetrotting to his ambition to be president. On the 8th of August, 2024, online newspaper Sahara Reporters broke news about the 2027 presidential aspirations of Governor Seyi Makinde.
“A WhatsApp group has been established to promote Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde’s potential presidential bid in 2027,” the paper reported. It says the group, which boasts 467 members then, includes prominent individuals such as Olajide Odidiomo, a member of the House of Representatives representing Ibadan Northwest/Southwest. It added that the group had other notable individuals, particularly those sympathetic to Makinde’s course. In days that followed, a string of write-ups purportedly written by Lagos residents endorsing Makinde’s aspiration flooded social media. In quick succession, the governor’s digital dingbats began rolling out his achievements, describing him as a bold, courageous, and visionary leader. Plus, the governor equally trended on the influential social media platform X following the revelation about his aspiration.
As a bona fide Oyo indigene, isn’t it heart-warming to have your state governor considered for such a top job? By all measures, Governor Makinde has all it takes to lead the country. He has the courage, the clout, the moneybag. He also has friends across the Niger. Plus, the incumbent president and his vice president are both former governors, similar to former Presidents Goodluck Jonathan and the late Umar Musa Yar’adua. Perhaps, the road to the presidential seat in the 4th Republic seems paved for ex-governors.
In another instance, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a long-term Presidential hopeful was equally elected Governor of Adamawa in 1999 before Boni Haruna, his deputy governor-elect, took over from him. Peter Obi, the 2023 Labour Presidential candidate, was also a former governor of Anambra state. Interestingly, only former President Olusegun Obasanjo was never a former governor to have ruled the country since 1999. Muhammadu Buhari, ex President also ruled Bornu as a military governor before Mustapha Amin took over from him. Given historical precedents and his records in office, Governor Seyi Makinde can successfully find his way to the Presidential seat.
In contrast, Governor Makinde’s chances will be undermined by many factors, notable among which is President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid, don’t forget they are from the same region. Politically and practically, it’s impossible for a governor, regardless of his clout and courage, to defeat a sitting president on his home turf. Maybe somewhere else, but not in a country like Nigeria, where money, religion, and sentiment play a crucial role in who wins an election.
So, Mr. Makinde’s chances of wrestling the southwest, the region with the second highest number of voters trailing behind the northwest from President Tinubu’s grip, are narrow. Even in Oyo, the governor will sweat. As a sitting governor, Mr. Makinde could not even deliver a single senator out of the three to his party in the last poll. He and his party were trounced in the presidential and national assembly elections by a wide margin. Unlike in 2019, when Atiku Abubakar of the PDP defeated Muhammadu Buhari of the APC in Oyo State, the 2023 elections had the APC clearing most seats in the National Assembly while also clinching that of the President.
Take away the hurdles he faces in the southwest and replace them with PDP protracted ordeals, the party he rebelled, undermined, and revolted against in the last election. Again, don’t forget that Mr. Makinde has a bad reputation nationally for his stand against the Supreme Court verdict on local government financial autonomy. More than 70% of Nigerians reside in rural areas.
Recall also that Governor Makinde was part of the 5-G Governor that thwarted the chances of PDP in the last Presidential poll. The result of that rebellion was a weakened and fragile party struggling inside Nigeria’s complex and complicated electoral ICU!
A tricky question, under which party will Mr. Makinde express his interest? Certainly not APC. Don’t forget, Mr. Makinde and his estranged leader, Nyesom Wike, are at loggerheads over the fate of Sim Fubara. He is also fighting a cold war with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who he opposed in the last election and, finally, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. To successfully prosecute an election nationally; a candidate needs more than just a financial war chest. He will need a sustained, well-oiled and, flourishing political structure that can withstand a firestorm of evil machinations, misfortunes, and tragedies. For now, Mr. Makinde has none, making his aspiration a huge, utter and complete joke!
OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about issues affecting the Oyo state and is published every Saturday. He can be reached via @GbadeTheGreat on X, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com, and 09065176850.
