The South-West Caucus of the All Progressives Congress has declared its readiness and intent to flush out both Osun and Oyo states from the firm grips of the People’s Democratic Party as the next election cycles gather momentum. The party made the declaration last Saturday, Oct. 5th 2024 at a rare and powerful stakeholders meeting held inside the iconic Eko Hotels and Suites.
Assuring the delegates, the APC National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, noted that concerted efforts are in top gear to reclaim and restore all the southwestern states into the progressive fold; a feat that was last replicated many years ago when the late Abiola Ajimobi (Oyo), Senator Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun), Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola (Osun), Dr. Kayode Fayemi, Rotimi Akeredolu, and Akinwunmi Ambode were all governors.
While the meeting brought selected gladiators within the geo-political zone under the same roof, its most significant output was throwing its weight, support, and solidarity behind the government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. “That the South-West Caucus should continue to support the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu GCFR in his effort to revamp the economy and put Nigeria on the path of prosperity”, the communique released after the meeting revealed.
“We cannot and should not allow anyone to derail our democracy under Tinubu,” Aremo Olusegun Osoba, elder statesman and former Ogun State governor insisted while addressing the delegates. The host Governor, Babajide Sanwoolu, remarked that the meeting was to share ideas and agree on strategies to take South-West to greater heights. He charged stakeholders to strive to forge ahead of the 2027 election.
The meeting particularly noted that the economic reforms of the President is necessary for the future of the country, while calling for patience and understanding from the populace. Ratifying, the party equally noted that plans must be underway towards reclaiming Oyo and Osun in subsequent elections to align with the vision of the President at the center.
Unlike Osun state where notable party leaders like former governor and minister of interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola were conspicuously absent, Senator Teslim Folarin and Oloye Bayo Adelabu, Minister of Power, the two notable APC leaders in Oyo surprisingly made it to the meeting. Perhaps, it was the first time the duo will be under the same roof after losing out to Governor Seyi Makinde in the last election. Given that Oyo APC still has some time under its belt to clean up its mess and unite aggrieved party faithful, the time factor has probably slipped off the fingers of the party in Osun, an indication of the party’s biggest headache in the state.
Take for instance the next governorship election in Osun. Slated for 2026, it is widely believed no sitting governor, Senator Ademola Adeleke included will relinquish power without giving a fight. As a realty check, how will APC reclaim Osun State with a divided house? One theory posits that the party may have to strategically and tactically break into the PDP’s ranks and files. Once this is done, it will help solidify the bases of the party in places where aggrieved members are determined to undermine the chances of the APC – and this is vice versa as well. By this, any efforts aimed at frustrating the APC will be potentially thwarted by counter-forces of those recruited to neutralize it. Not in anyway special or spectacular, this was a major strategy deployed by the President in the last election. While it’s unclear whether bigwigs like Ogbeni Aregbesola will stuns the public similar to how Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola gob-smacked observers in 2014 when he, out of the blue, threw his weight behind Aregbesola, his once bitter political archenemy. Although, in politics. they use to say never say never.
Anyone who claims to understand the crisis rocking the Oyo State All-Progressives Congress since 2019 general elections is either deluded or bluffing. For a party that recorded impressive and breathtaking outcome in the National Assembly elections in the last two election cycles to have its governorship chances dissipated and evaporated in matters of weeks needed to be studied.
Experts might have conjured up different theories to explain the ‘why’ but the truth remains sketchy and vague. Take the 2019 poll. With a sitting Governor, late Abiola Ajimobi, President, Muhammadu Buhari and a control of the state assembly and members of the National Assembly, it was inconvincible that a party with such strength and resources would be booted out of office by an opposition that almost frittered away with its chances. While the period under review was contextual, the disappointing outcome speaks largely about the internal workings of the party. Sure, the imposition of Oloye Bayo Adelabu on the party and the controversy that trailed his religion and importantly the cacophonous public outcry against late Ajimobi’s high-handedness played important roles in the electoral misfortune of the APC.
Still, for a party that stood strongly and solidly in the Presidential and National Assembly election to have suffered heavy defeat appears unbelievable. Findings however revealed how APC members under the guise of Unity Forum tirelessly worked against the party’s interest. This similar pattern played out in the 2023 where APC mercilessly flogged all the Senatorial candidates of the PDP while clinching much of the House of Representatives seats only to have its guber candidate beaten to the stupor by the incumbent governor Seyi Makinde. How do you describe a party whose strength lies in the National Assembly elections but quickly went to bed with the party it’s trying to defeat on account of clashes of interest among its power brokers?
Rumors flying around suggest Oloye Bayo Adelabu is weighing his options regarding 2027 governorship elections. Apart from his background in banking and the tough job he’s currently handling at the ministry of power, his political standing in the state appears underwhelming and quite unimpressive. As a Minister, he ought to leverage and capitalize on that to transform himself from a corporate boardroom magician into an evolving political juggernaut. By indication, he hasn’t succeeded in thrusting his names and aspirations into the mouths and hearts of people of Oyo state.
In case Senator Teslim Folarin also decide to throw his hat in the ring come 2027, we might as well brace up for a renewed intra-party wrangling that may weakened the party while strengthened the other party. “Both TKF and Oloye Adelabu seems to have exceeded the limit of their chances”, one political observer noted “it is time for them to team-up and support a neutral candidate if they both love the party as claim”. How possible and feasible and plausible is this conjecture? Time, will no doubt, tell.
OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about issues affecting the Oyo state and is published every Saturday. He can be reached via @GbadeTheGreat on X, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com, and 09065176850.
