As a young farmer, Laolu Alabi had high hopes for the 2024 planting season. In the year before, he had recorded a bountiful harvest that stunned his biggest critics. Name it: Soybeans, maize, and potatoes are some of the products that brought happiness to his face.
As a kid, alongside his siblings, farming was a family business. That experience of growing in a farmer’s stead sort of exposed him to the rigors and intensity of farming. And by 2023, having received his father’s blessings, he went all out to cultivate his land and managed his own farm. It wasn’t too much for a graduate finding his feet in the notorious labor market where connection oftentimes trumps credentials in securing the available government jobs.
When Laolu dashed into the tough job of farming, everything worked perfectly well for him, at least initially: there wasn’t much problem with rainfall, or better put, the acute rain shortage that disturbed other farmers didn’t touch his farm. Partly because of early planting and his attention to detail. And when the harvest time beckons, he was one of those lucky farmers who smiled to both the market and the bank.
“As a young farmer new to the business, I could say my first year was great because I made a bountiful harvest than most other farmers. Most of the seeds and tubers that I planted germinated very well and bore fruits that became the cynosure in the market,” he noted. I had to sustain that optimism and enthusiasm for the following planting season, where I was, ironically, tested and tried, he added.
While the 2024 planting season has practically come to an end with preparation for the next in slow motion, concerns over food inflation, which stood at 40.87%, and the unpredictability of weather occasioned by climate change have dominated conversation among farmers. “I invested heavily in this year’s farming without any idea of what climate change was,” Ridwan Bashir, another farmer, lamented. That experience, he noted, will shape his decision going forward. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on food inflation was the highest in the country’s history. While many experts disputed the claim, the data still underscores the danger posed by climate change in addressing food insecurity in a country with a high rate of food malnutrition.
In February 2024, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NIMet, in its seasonal climate prediction (SCP), had forecasted a late onset of rain across the country. Aviation minister, Festus Keyamo, SAN, had said the seasonal climate prediction report provides critical information to help guide decision-making across all sectors of the economy. “As we are all aware,” the minister quipped, “weather and climate have profound effects on aviation, agriculture, maritime, the blue economy, water and natural resources, energy, disaster management, and infrastructure investments. The 2024 onset of rain is predicted to be delayed in some parts of the country, especially in the north-central states of the country”.
In states like Oyo, the minister enthused that late secession is predicted with annual rainfall amounts predicted to be below normal over parts of Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Bauchi, Bayelsa, etc. when compared to their long-term normal”. The director general of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) equally noted that NiMet’s seasonal climate prediction helps the agency to analyse disaster risk implications and produce disaster early warning messages for the protection of lives and assets. The agency also said its report was translated into the three major languages in the country for easy accessibility. Founded in 2003, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency is charged with the responsibility to advise the Federal Government on all aspects of meteorology; project, prepare, and interpret government policy in the field of meteorology; and issue weather (and climate) forecasts for the operations of aircraft, ocean-going vessels, and oil rigs. Additionally, the agency also observes, collates, collects, processes, and disseminates all meteorological data and information.
Despite a series of efforts to help farmers combat the growing menace of climate change, for most farmers in the southern part of the country where irrigation hasn’t been fully embraced, those efforts amount to nothing. With government support substantially lacking, most farmers are resigning themselves to their fates while others are cutting their budgets for fear of debt. Participants in my survey said that timely information about climate change by experts and agencies like NiMet will help to restore their dwindling confidence in the weather and renew their fleeting hope. As it stands, many of the farmers are contemplating what they should invest in next. “I made a fortune in 2023,” Olajide Solomon told me, “but I couldn’t replicate that same feat this year because my judgement of the climate failed me.”.
This climate change dilemma has raised questions and sparked conversations, particularly as the country enters dry season, a period marked by low rainfalls and extreme and blistering heat. For the older farmers, the questions have been lingering and troubling, in part because it has led to an astronomical increase in the prices of food items. In effect, the devastating effects of climate change in most of the agrarian council areas of the state are still being tallied.
For instance, in Oke-Ogun, Oyo North Senatorial District, the story has both been harrowing and heartbreaking. Farmers pouring their hearts into their jobs, depleting their pockets in the process only to suffer massive losses that often leave them drained and depressed. For many farmers, discussing climate change is like speaking Greek; they don’t just get it. Many don’t buy the idea of long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns – changing minds seem difficult than changing gears. While experts have posited that climate change cannot be stopped, they unanimously believed that it can be slowed.
“Climate change is one of the most challenging problems that humanity has ever faced,” the Union of Concerned Scientists noted on their website. “At stake are hundreds of millions of lives, innumerable species and ecosystems, the health and viability of the economy, and the future of the habitability of this planet”.
When I asked Olaide Ogundele, another farmer whether he subscribed to the idea of farming becoming a gamble given the unpredictable nature of rainfall, he answered in the affirmative. He contended that unless government across all tiers take the bull of informing and educating farmers in the rural areas by the horns, whatever efforts they make will simply go down the drain. He said that with the current economic hardship, farmers are weighing their options for the next planting session.
PS: Names of participants in the interview have been changed. Any similarity in names is coincidental.
OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about issues affecting the Oyo state and is published every Saturday. He can be reached via @Upliftnuggets on X, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com, and 09065176850.
