Makinde Vs. APC | Muftau Gbadegesin

It is often said that if you pluck the feathers of a chicken, nobody notices. The same is also said of those who eat their cake hoping they can still have it. That is how some people deceive themselves into believing that small wrongs, small mistrust, and small betrayals will never catch up with them. The trouble with this method is that, one ordinary day, the chicken will come home to roost and the truth will be laid bare.

Anyone who has closely watched Oyo politics for the past seven years will tell you this uncomfortable truth: Governor Seyi Makinde’s political rise is akin to plucking the feathers of a chicken. Only that this time, the victim of his plucking is not a chicken, per se, but the opposition party, notably the APC.

Precisely, the rapid ascent of Governor Makinde’s political machinery actually comes at the dramatic descent of the APC into a party of internal fisticuffs, sabotage, and discontent. Curiously, what happens when the party of ‘faaja’ and ‘jagba’ quietly and genuinely find common ground, close their ranks, agree to sheath swords and fight a common enemy? That kind of momentum, in other words, may spell doom for the same political machinery whose survival and success largely feed off on that permutation and calculation.

The focus of this column is to look at the genuineness of the APC reconciliation efforts and, of course, the recent resignation spree rocking the boat of Governor Makinde’s political camp.

As the people of Oyo State anticipate the decisive 2027 gubernatorial contest, this particular illustration becomes especially useful. Under Governor Makinde, the state has made significant progress in infrastructure, notably in urban renewal, agribusiness, workers’ welfare, healthcare, job creation, and economic stability.

In many cases, the state has leapfrogged most of its peers and seems to have gotten a lot of things right—and a lot more wrong, too. Incidentally, those strides came at the expense of a fractured opposition party that couldn’t shake off its numerous defeats, not to talk of offering consistent and constructive criticism of many of the government’s failings.

Retrospectively, the 2019 and 2023 elections, for example, touched on the raw nerves of the opposition and therefore exposed their deep-seated division and internal contradiction. That division became especially damaging in the governorship contests, where notable party chieftains clandestinely worked for Governor Makinde—just to settle political scores. That pattern of internal sabotage can trick anyone into thinking the future of the state rests on his shoulders. It is not surprising that Governor Makinde has made a categorical and finite statement regarding the next elections in which he is aspiring to lead the country—while also building momentum around his own candidate.

Whether in the church or on the campaign rallies, Governor Makinde hasn’t shied away from beating his chest about the chances of his party to win the 2027 gubernatorial contest—against all odds. He has asserted, on many occasions, his plans to break another jinx: hand over power to Bimbo Adekanmbi—the candidate of his political party, the first in the history of the state. The point is, many considered Makinde’s declarative statement to be an overreach, given that an outgoing governor in Oyo State is unlike any in the country—the political climate, for a second-term governor, as we’ve seen under late Abiola Ajimobi, is usually like a pendulum swing. No one can say where it will ultimately swing. How about the 2019 political alliance that brought in Governor Makinde?

Of all the pictures that made their way to the public in the wake of the coalition meetings that helped Governor Makinde win, one stood out of the pack: the hand raising picture between him, Olubadan of Ibadan, Oba Rashidi Ladoja, and Senator Sharafadeen Alli.

That iconic picture captured the behind-the-scenes efforts and roles the duo, alongside other prominent politicians, played in mobilizing support for the governor’s electoral victory. The picture actually looked ordinary at first glance but revealed its deeper meaning when placed side by side with the current political reality. Today, politics has pitted the trio against one another, with Makinde wrestling with the Olubadan and his godson, Alli, in an epic political showdown.

One of the distinguishing qualities of successful politicians who stay long and strong enough in the slaughterhouse of boring and brutal politicking to survive and succeed in betrayals, backstabbing, and backbiting is the emphasis on building a coalition that can thwart the plans of the opponents. For those in elective positions, this is certainly true in part because coalitions are as vital to their relevance and continuous stay in office as air is to breathing. This truism is particularly undeniable in Oyo politics, which is notorious for its last-minute shocks and surprises.

Every smart politician knows when to strike and when to sheath the sword. That timing is key to success or setback. Of course, the battle line has been drawn long before partisan politics gather momentum. In the 2019 and 2023 gubernatorial elections, for instance, Governor Seyi Makinde, without any shred of doubt, relied heavily on the internal wrangling within the fold of the All Progressives Congress to win at the poll. The formation of the ‘Unity Forum,’ a group of aggrieved APC power brokers in the buildup to the 2019 election, gave his camp crucial leverage within the APC. The failure of late Abiola Ajimobi to manage the fallout between his camp and the Unity Forum led to cracks that offered the PDP and Makinde’s camp a window of opportunity.

The truth is, the public declaration of the duo of Senator Teslim Folarin and Senator Fatai Buhari, two political heavyweights for all the candidates of the APC in the next election, came as a turning point for the party at war over the way and manner in which its primaries were conducted. Interestingly, the surprising resignation of Otunba Segun Ogunwuyi as the Chief of Staff to Governor Makinde, alongside other resignations that followed, equally marked a defining moment for the camp that many assumed was intact and impenetrable.

In one fell swoop, those two scenarios are recalibrating the discussion regarding the next election. For one thing, Governor Seyi Makinde has fought the APC twice in his political career, with landslide victories. The question on the lips of many is: will that same pattern of victory against the APC repeat itself, especially when the governor is not on the ballot as the gubernatorial candidate?

PLAIN TALK is Muftau Gbadegesin’s commentary on contemporary socio-political issues affecting Oyo State and beyond. He writes every Saturday and can be reached on X and at muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com.