2027 Oyo Guber Election: A Replay Of 2011? | Ademola ‘Bablow’ Babalola

As of the last time I checked, the name of Oriyomi Hamzat, the Accord Party’s governorship candidate in Oyo State, was still listed on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) portal contrary to the rumour that his name had been replaced. Apart from him, the already listed names of candidates from several other political parties also remain registered on the portal.

All things being equal, at least five governorship candidates from five political parties out of many other candidates are expected to slug it out in the forthcoming governorship election in Oyo State. Sarafadeen Abiodun Ali (APC), Abimbola Adekanmbi (APM), Oriyomi Hamzat (Accord), Hazeem Gbolarumi (PDP), and Taofeek Adegboyega Adegoke (ADC) will surely have their popularity tested in the 2027 election.

During a recent lengthy conversation with one of my brothers, Adeleke Adedoja, a major player in the emergence of the late Abiola Ajimobi as governor in 2011, about the political situation in Oyo State, I mentioned that a coalition, as witnessed in 2011 and 2019, was likely to be the decisive factor in the state’s governorship election in February 2027. What remains uncertain, however, is the party and candidate the coalition will ultimately choose to support.

Although the incumbent Governor of Oyo State, Engr. Seyi Makinde, unlike the late Alao Akala ahead of the 2011 election, is not directly in the governorship race, he remains, in a sense, a major player in the contest, having chosen to participate in the presidential race. Besides, Makinde remains considerably more politically prominent than his political godson, Bimbo Adekanmbi, who appears set to ride on the strength and influence of his godfather. For this reason, I can confidently say that, in the 2027 Oyo governorship election, Makinde and Adekanmbi are, in effect, contesting together.

Just as we had Alao Akala (PDP), Abiola Ajimobi (ACN), and Senator Rashidi Ladoja, now Olubadan of Ibadan, (Accord) as the frontrunners in the build-up to the 2011 governorship election, so do we have, at the moment, the Seyi Makinde/Bimbo Adekanmbi-led APM, Sarafadeen Ali of the APC, and Oriyomi Hamzat of Accord. Looking at the political situation on the ground, it appears that a replay of the 2011 governorship election in Oyo State may be staring us in the face.

Since the electoral reforms that have brought some measure of normalcy to electioneering in Nigeria, Oyo State remains one of the states where it is difficult to predict with certainty the outcome of a governorship election.

Apart from the 2003 and 2007 elections, which were reportedly marred by violence, including ballot-box snatching, threats to voters’ lives, and other electoral malpractices, the four subsequent elections have demonstrated that the votes of the electorate do count. How I wish the late Lamidi Ariyibi Adedibu were still alive. He would have witnessed the remarkable transformation that electoral reforms have brought about in curbing the electoral fraud that was rampant during his time.

The introduction of BVAS and other technological devices has, at least, considerably reduced the rate at which elections are rigged in Nigeria. Nowadays, elections are largely won right from polling units. This means that any party that is serious about winning an election must, at this stage, put in vigorous and extra effort.

There is no denying that Sarafadeen Ali of the APC and Makinde/Adekanmbi of the APM are the likely winners in the next governorship election in Oyo State. However, one factor we should not overlook is that Oriyomi Hamzat could play a significant role in determining which of the two candidates eventually emerges victorious, much like Ladoja of the Accord Party did in the 2011 election.

In 2011, only a few people believed that the late Senator Abiola Ajimobi would emerge as governor. He was largely regarded as the dark horse among the other two major contenders. The contest was widely perceived to be between the then incumbent governor, Adebayo Alao-Akala, and his former boss-turned-arch-rival, Senator Rashidi Ladoja.

Even up until election day, the outcome of the three-way contest remained difficult to predict. It was towards the final moment that Ladoja reportedly realised that continuing to press on could give Akala an advantage, and that an Akala victory could spell doom for his own political interests. He subsequently pitched his tent with Ajimobi, a move that ultimately altered the dynamics of the election.

After Ajimobi became governor, there was a cordial relationship between him and Ladoja, although the relationship was not welcomed by the late Lamidi Onaolapo Adesina (The Great Lam), Ajimobi’s predecessor. It is noteworthy to mention here that Ajimobi ceded some political positions to the Accord Party, an arrangement that Lam Adesina reportedly frowned upon.

Along the way, perhaps because of Ladoja’s ambition to return as governor, the once-smooth relationship between him and Ajimobi began to deteriorate. The two men eventually became political foes. Ajimobi, whom Ladoja had wholeheartedly supported in his governorship bid in 2007 and worked with to prevent Akala’s re-election in 2011, would later become a thorn in Ladoja’s flesh.

Throughout Ajimobi’s eight years in office, the grudge between the two never subsided, and it was carried into the 2019 election. There is no gainsaying the fact that the disagreement between Ajimobi and Ladoja helped facilitate the coalition that was formed to favour the current governor, Seyi Makinde, against Ajimobi’s political godson, Bayo Adelabu, in 2019. Adelabu was defeated, and his defeat was particularly painful for Ajimobi, as he also lost his bid for a senatorial seat to Kola Balogun, who many had regarded as an underdog.

It was later alleged that the defeat of Ajimobi and Adelabu was also influenced by the activities of certain actors, among them Oriyomi Hamzat, who was accused of repeatedly blackmailing the Ajimobi’s administration, and Mukaila Lamidi, widely known as “Auxiliary”, who, despite being kept in detention, was said to be working surreptitiously against Ajimobi’s candidate. Even though their contribution might appear infinitesimal, it was by no means inconsequential.

As if the seat of power itself were a spirit, hardly had Makinde’s administration begun when he started distancing himself from those who had played significant roles in his emergence as governor. The first major casualty was Senator Rashidi Ladoja and his team, including Femi Lanlehin, Sarafadeen Ali and others. There were allegations that Makinde deliberately reneged on the agreement made during the coalition, although the details of the agreement reached between Makinde and Ladoja were never made public,

As Makinde’s administration progressed, just as it happened during Ajimobi’s tenure, many of the political allies who had stood by him from the outset began to fall out with him. One of them was “Auxiliary,” the Chairman of the Park Management System (PMS), who was widely regarded as Makinde’s second-in-command during what was described as his reign of terror. Auxiliary’s increasingly unruly behaviour, which Makinde was allegedly reluctant to curb, eventually strained their relationship and ultimately led to Auxiliary’s departure from Makinde’s camp.

Oriyomi Hamzat, who was once known as one of Makinde’s ardent supporters, suddenly became a constant source of discomfort for the governor. Only God knows what truly caused the skirmish between the two erstwhile jolly friends. Not long afterwards, another of Makinde’s formidable alliy, the former Deputy Governor of Oyo State, Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja, also fell out with the governor and pitched his tent with the APC candidate, Sarafadeen Ali.

Rumour had it that Arapaja was unhappy with the choice of Bimbo Adekanmbi – whose political antecedents, according to his critics, could largely be traced to the opposition party – over Makinde’s long-time political allies as the flag bearer of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM). Arapaja was reportedly of the view that if Makinde could not trust his long-time and loyal party men, then there was little reason for him to remain in the governor’s camp.

Based on the strength of their grassroots structures, candidate popularity, voter mobilisation, campaign organisation, and available resources, there is no doubt that the APC and APM are the parties with the most favourable chances of winning the forthcoming election in Oyo State.

Now that the stage is set and the campaign has begun, I believe any serious political party, particularly the APC and APM, should, at this point, brace for a tough contest in the forthcoming governorship election in the state. Indeed, it is not going to be an easy ride for either of the two formidable parties, especially with the third-force party, Accord, fielding a grassroots candidate in the person of Oriyomi Hamzat.

My observation is that Oriyomi’s candidacy has potentially placed him in a position to disrupt the calculations of the two leading contenders, Sarafadeen Ali and Bimbo Adekanmbi. Hence, the APC and APM must be ready for a contest in which the Accord candidate could play a far more significant role than his numerical strength might suggest.

As things stand, Oriyomi, if he eventually makes it onto the ballot, may determine where the pendulum swings. Although he may not win the election, he could make or mar the chances of either of the two frontrunners. Any attempt to underestimate his political influence could spell doom for the candidates, just as Senator Rashidi Ladoja did in 2011 under the then Accord Party, when his candidacy significantly altered the electoral equation and changed the tide of the contest.

Ademola ‘Bablow’ Babalola
babalolaademola39@gmail.com