Oyo Is Not Osun | Muftau Gbadegesin
For all the analyses, comparisons and commentaries on and about the last week gubernatorial election in Osun State won by Governor Ademola Adeleke, particularly as the people of Oyo State eagerly anticipate the post Makinde’s era in 2027, one key point appears to be missing as political campaigns gather momentum: the unimpeachable fact that Oyo and Osun are not always on the same side of the same coin electorally and politically despite their shared history and heritage.
That the ruling Accord party in Osun was declared winner in a chaotically competitive election against a formidable, well-oiled and powerful opposition APC does not mean the same would repeat itself next year when the Allied People’s Movement (APM) flag bearer and former commissioner for finance under late Abiola Ajimobi, Bimbo Adekambi and the candidate of the APC, Senator Sarafadeen Alli lock-horns in an election that is sure to be unequivocally breathtaking.
Conversely, the Osun scenario also does not offer a blank cheque to the opposition APC as the party prepares for a possible comeback after suffering an extraordinarily excruciating and humiliating defeats both in the 2019 and 2023 elections. Warts and all, the 2027 election therefore presents the party with a once in a lifetime opportunity to reclaim the seat of power after playing under the shadow of Governor Makinde for the past seven years. Indeed, seven years it was that the APC handed over the reign of power to Governor Makinde and his coalition only for the party to hit the rock bottom of political irrelevance — especially as the party struggles to unite behind a candidate in the two gubernatorial contests.
No doubt, the question on the lips of many within and outside the rank of the party is whether APC has what it takes to truly give Governor Makinde and his candidates a run for their money. For one thing, the question of whether the party ultimately sweeps Governor Makinde and his acolytes off the seat of power is a separate column on its own.
For today, the focus will be on the perils and pitfalls of assuming the success of the Accord party could be replicated in Oyo under APM/PDP or more boldly, by the APC. To start with, both the Accord Party and APM are considered Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV): that is, they were last minute resorts that offered some sort of stability for the political aspirations of both the governors of Oyo and Osun States after the ‘wicked’ Nyesom Wike set the PDP on fire and made it practically inhabitable for those seeking political shelter.
That said, the election in Osun presents many intrigues and complexities that are peculiar to the state. In Oyo, like other states across the federation, the state is also unique, politically in its own right. To capture it fittingly, the political landscape in the Oyo has overtime defied easy and simplistic interpretation. In Osun for instance, Adeleke enjoyed both name recognition, goodwill, given his relative performance in workers welfare, education, and infrastructure and most importantly the bitter memory left behind by the APC.
Despite the avoidable violence, bloodshed, excessive use of force by both parties and the charged atmosphere that marred the contest, the turnout of the voters and the relative professionalism displayed by INEC and the security operatives ensured that more than a million people freely exercised their franchise.
Apart from the name recognition and goodwill, Adeleke’s ability to capitalize on the shortcomings of his opponents also played out positively in his favor. When it comes to name recognition in Oyo politics, Alli stands a better chance than any other candidates. He is a known politician. In 2019, he was among the opposition candidates that stepped down to boost the chances of Governor Seyi Makinde against the APC. He was the candidate of the Zenith Labor Party (ZLP). Under Senator Rashidi Ladoja, Alli held various positions; from the Chief of Staff to the Secretary to the State Government. In the third republic, he was the pioneer council chairman of Ibadan local government, one of the largest local governments in Oyo state.
From the dawn of the fourth republic, his name has always rung a bell. The 2027 election presents the best chance for him to demonstrate what stands him out of the pack. Bimbo Adekanmbi on the other hand is a relatively obscure political figure having served as the deputy chief of staff to the late Abiola Ajimobi before serving as the commissioner for finance between 2015-2019. To prop up his image and thrust him back into the public consciousness, Governor Makinde appointed him to head the Ibadan Airport Upgrade. Politically, Hon. Adekambi has also tried his hands in elective positions with no success. Through his radio program and human rights activities, Oriyomi Hamzat is another candidate who also enjoys positive name recognition but the weakness of his party constitutes the greatest obstacle to his aspiration. In Oyo state, name recognition will play such a mixed role in the grand scheme of things. Governor Makinde knew this. In 2015, under a very unpopular party, Governor Makinde threw his hat into the ring, hoping to establish himself as a future contender for the state’s highest seat. By 2019, he has gained and garnered significant name recognition. This columnist believes the choice of a relatively obscure figure as the heir to Makinde’s political movement is anchored on the name recognition enjoyed by the Governor himself. But the winner of the 2027 elections will need more than name recognition and rootedness to emerge victorious.
For the opposition, the various shortcomings of the Makinde’s administration are enough to rally the people behind their aspirations. Little wonder, Governor Makinde has started to appeal to those toes he has stepped in the course of his stewardship. “I sincerely apologize to anyone who may have felt offended during the course of my duties as the Governor of Oyo State”, the Governor pleaded at a public function, “if any opportunity arises to make amends before my tenure concludes, I will gladly do so”. When the late Abiola Ajimobi made a similar appeal, those who ganged up against him never sheath their swords.
The politics and politicking of Oyo differs considerably from that of Osun. For obvious reasons. The 2027 election will either help Governor Seyi Makinde consolidate on his gains or elevate the APC back to power. Whatever the outcome, the factors that will shape the contest will extend beyond the shores of the state. Unlike Osun where the Presidency played a somewhat neutral role, the same will not be said of Oyo given Governor Makinde’s many controversies and open confrontations against the President and his government. “If the President had wanted to win the Osun State election at all cost”, Wike blasted in his characteristic guttural voice “I would have been there and we would have won it”. The 2027 gubernatorial election in Oyo will test the limit of that “federal might”.
PLAIN TALK is Muftau Gbadegesin’s commentary on contemporary socio-political Issues affecting Oyo State and beyond. He writes every Saturday and can be reached on X and muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com
